An ACC showdown between teams on different coasts highlights the late-night slate on Friday, as we'll see the NC State Wolfpack travel to Palo Alto, California for a date with Stanford. The Cardinal are coming off a win over Elon while the Wolfpack are fresh off a bye week following a loss at the hands of Wake Forest. Ordinarily, I'd look toward backing the West Coast home underdog in this role, but I believe we're actually getting a fairly low price on the visitors in this contest.
Laying points with NC State isn't for the faint of heart. After all, the Wolfpack have not made things easy for their fans or backers this season. However, this is a favorable matchup for an offense that has been steadily improving over their last five games. As for the hosts, defense has been a major issue for the Cardinal, with Stanford allowing an average of 41.5 points against FBS opponents and sitting at 123rd nationally in adjusted EPA per play through the first seven weeks. NC State ranks 37th in passing success rate, which makes this matchup against the Cardinal (121st in passing success rate allowed, 124th in EPA per pass allowed) an advantageous one for the Wolfpack. Look for NC State to consistently stay ahead of the chains on early downs, leading to plenty of manageable situations for Bailey to operate with confidence on third and fourth downs. It hasn't been a perfect season for the Wolfpack, but I trust Doeren's team to respond well coming off the bye and get back into the win column on Friday.
NC State vs Stanford prediction: NC State -6.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 7 (-110).
