The market has gone the other way on this total, and that's the first thing to own. It sat at 51.5 at every book I use for most of the week before dropping to 50.5 on Tuesday night, so I'm betting against that move, and BetMGM has the best price on the over at -110.
The games these teams have played against Power Four opponents are the anchor. Texas A&M's three produced 68, 52 and 41 points, and Arkansas's two produced 53 and 62 -- so four of the five cleared this number, with Arkansas allowing 43 at Utah and 45 to Georgia along the way.
The mechanism is that both offenses see a weaker defense than the ones that stopped them. Arkansas scored 10 and 17 against Utah and Georgia, the sixth and 18th-ranked scoring defenses, and now faces a Texas A&M defense ranked 58th. Texas A&M's slump, 21 against Kentucky and six at LSU with Marcel Reed held to 106 yards there, is the honest counter, but Arkansas's defense ranks 101st -- below both of those.
The weather is the other counter, with the National Weather Service calling for showers and thunderstorms around kickoff in College Station, but the wind is forecast at five to 10 miles per hour, and rain without wind isn't something for which I'll fade a total. That drop from 51.5 hands me a better number than the one that held all week.
Arkansas vs Texas A&M prediction: Over 50.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 51(-110).
