This is a matchup that looked a lot more enticing on paper a few weeks ago, as both teams were undefeated and looking like bona fide title contenders in the SEC and on a national level. Fast forward just two weeks and Florida is stumbling into this game following back-to-back blowout losses at the hands of Missouri and South Carolina — with the latter being a very concerning result at home as a significant favorite. On the other side, Texas had numerous chances to win the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma a week ago, but the Longhorns allowed 17 fourth-quarter points and blew a late lead despite outgaining the Sooners by nearly 150 yards. Neither team inspires much confidence at the moment, but Texas is the better side and we should see a bounce-back effort from the Longhorns at home.
Florida's offense has been a machine for most of the season, but this is the best defense the Gators have faced all season by far — particularly up front. If the Gators are unable to get Jadan Baugh going this week, it's hard to have much hope for the passing game when they'll likely be living in difficult situations on late downs. To make matters worse, quarterback Aaron Philo is questionable for this game with a shoulder injury, making it very possible that the Longhorns should just be able to load the box and dare Florida to beat them over the top. On the other side, this matchup is one that should allow the Texas passing game to break out, especially against an extremely poor Florida secondary (119th in EPA per pass allowed). I can only look at the hosts in this one.
Florida vs Texas prediction: Texas -10.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to Texas -11.5 (-110).
