A pivotal Pac-12 showdown highlights the Group of Six slate on Saturday, as we'll see the Fresno State Bulldogs take on the Texas State Bobcats. Texas State is a team that has plenty of talent but was maddeningly inconsistent for most of the season, but the Bobcats appear to have turned a corner following a couple of excellent performances in recent weeks — including a dominant victory over Oregon State a week ago. All of a sudden, G.J. Kinnie's team has vaulted into second place in the Pac-12 standings and has the inside track on making the conference title game. However, the Bobcats will now be operating in the favorite role, which has not been a profitable endeavor for this program in recent years.
Fresno State is another program that has also consistently operated well in the underdog role, and we saw the Bulldogs knock off Oregon State two weeks ago in dominant fashion. Unsurprisingly, they came out flat against Utah State a week ago, and that led to a pretty convincing defeat at the hands of the Aggies. This time around, I expect a much better showing from Matt Entz's group, and they should see success against a Bobcats defense that is outside the top 100 in EPA per play and success rate allowed. On the other side of the ball, Texas State should score plenty — as it usually does — but the Bulldogs defense is still a top 50 unit nationally in EPA per play allowed, so they should do enough to hang within this number.
Fresno State vs Texas State prediction: Fresno State +10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.5.
