For me, this begins with the Rockets. In their last 3 games against FBS competition, Toledo has scored 49, 41, and 39 points against San Diego State, Ball State, and Temple. That's exactly the kind of offensive production I want to bank on when we're dealing with a total of only 54.5. Buffalo's defense certainly gives the Rockets an opportunity to keep rolling. The Bulls surrendered 33 points to FIU and even allowed FCS Robert Morris to score 28. I'm ignoring the 55-point debacle against Penn State because Power 4 opponents can score at will against Group of Six MAC outfits on many days. However, it is also a view into what can happen if Buffalo's defense gets exposed and the Rockets can do just that. Be that as it may, Toledo should have opportunities to score and can do most of the heavy lifting by itself. The question is whether Buffalo can also contribute enough to get us home. I think they can.
Against FBS competition, Toledo is surrendering an average of 29.5 points per game. That includes Michigan State alongside the aforementioned Aztecs, Cardinals, and Owls, but it nevertheless tells me this Rockets defense can be scored upon. Buffalo doesn't need 30 here. If Toledo continues its recent form and puts another 40 points on the board, we're already knocking at the door. A couple of Bulls touchdowns, which is completely plausible, puts us at the threshold. I think both squads will take us past it. I'll trust Toledo's offense to set the pace and Buffalo to contribute enough through their defense getting smoked and/or scoring against a modest Rockets defense. Take the Over, no matter how you slice it.
Buffalo vs Toledo prediction: Over 54.5 (-106) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number.
