The Toledo Rockets have won eight straight games over the UMass Minutemen. They will once again enter this game as heavy favorites, but UMass hasn’t had this many wins in a season in quite some time. Toledo is currently on a three-game winning streak, with their last win coming over Sacramento State 20-17. Running back CJ Miller ran for 135 yards to help the Rockets squeak past their opponent despite coming into the game as 25-point favorites. UMass ended a four-game losing streak with a 31-30 overtime win over Ball State in their previous game. The Minutemen have dealt with injuries to the quarterback position throughout the year. They got William Watson III back under center, and he produced 302 yards and a touchdown in the win.
Toledo offense comes into this game with the better offense on paper. The Rockets are averaging 35.4 points and 455.3 yards per game, ranking them as one of the best statistical offenses in the nation. Quarterback John Alan Richter has been especially good, throwing for 2,304 yards and 18 touchdowns. UMass will have their hands full containing Richter, but they have shown they can slow down opposing passers. The Minutemen have shown they are respectable against the pass, only allowing 181.9 passing yards per game. They rank 37th in yards allowed per game and only surrender 22.1 points per game. They have also been opportunistic, taking the football away with a +5 turnover differential. If UMass can succeed in slowing down the pass, we may see Toledo lean on Miller and the running game. Toledo is the better team coming into this game, especially on their home field, but the Minutemen have the personnel to slow down Toledo’s offense and limit their scoring opportunities.
UMass vs Toledo prediction: Under 51.5 (-110) is available at time of publishing. Playable at 50 (+105).
