The question here is simple: who wants to bet Southern Miss? The Golden Eagles haven't beaten an FBS opponent this season, with their lone victory coming against FCS Alcorn State. They're also 2-7 ATS over their last nine games, while Troy has won and covered five straight in this series, winning each by double digits. Which is why the opening number immediately caught my attention. The line launched with Troy as a 9.5-point choice and was quickly pushed through 10 to where it has settled at it's present price. With that being said, the Trojans still offer plenty of allure. In the Sun Belt, Troy's name carries pedigree. While everything about the aforementioned points bettors toward the Trojans, that is precisely why USM has my attention. They are almost certainly being offered at a discount.
The Golden Eagles' stock is in the cellar, but Troy's résumé hardly suggests there is an enormous gap. The Trojans narrowly escaped Sam Houston State by 3 despite laying 16.5 points to open up their 2026 campaign. Troy State followed that up with their only other victory this year against FCS Alabama State. Troy hasn't won since then. Thereafter, the Trojans played Missouri close in Columbia on September 19th in a 27-17 loss, which looks a lot better after Mizzou's trampling of Florida on Saturday. After that, two weeks ago, Troy parlayed that result by getting whacked at Utah State. This leads me to my thesis. With all the variables in play, if Troy were vastly superior, it could be laying considerably more points here. Instead, the tax based on its Sun Belt reputation and dominance of this series is already baked into the price, and with that being said, the opening number actually appeared a bit soft. Southern Miss can make this far more interesting than many may expect. Take the points.
Southern Miss vs Troy prediction: Southern Miss +10.5 (-104) available at time of publishing. Playable to +10.
