Both the TCU Horned Frogs and the UCF Knights will compete in their first Big 12 matchup of the season after going 2-1 in nonconference play. TCU’s one loss came 15-10 against North Carolina in Ireland, while UCF lost to Pittsburgh 12-7 in a second-half monsoon. It is hard to get an early season read on either team with both games having their own wrinkle in them that could make them outliers.
The strength versus strength matchup in this game will be TCU’s passing game against UCF's running game. TCU is led by Harvard-transfer quarterback, Jaden Craig. Craig has impressive numbers to start the season with 903 yards passing, seven touchdowns and only one interception. Craig has completed 70.7% of his passes and is averaging 9.8 yards per attempt, both being career highs. I do have reason to push back on Craig’s early season success. All of Craig’s passing touchdowns came against Arkansas State and Grambling. When Craig played against North Carolina, he was closer to average, throwing for 175 yards and no touchdowns.
This will be Craig’s first game against a Big 12 defense since transferring in from Harvard, and UCF has shown to be a solid defense against the pass, only allowing 189 yards passing per game in their first three contests. UCF’s running game has been their strength early on, led by Jeremy Payne. The Knights average 228 rushing yards per game with Payne leading the way at 307 yards thus far. In UCF’s most recent game, Duke Watson ran for a career-high 177 yards and two touchdowns.
My concern with UCF’s offense is their quarterback play. Former quarterback of the College Football Playoff James Madison Dukes, Alonza Barnett III, transferred into UCF but recently went down with a hamstring injury. Replacing Barnett in UCF’s last game against Georgia State was FIU transfer Keyone Jenkins. Jenkins finished the game with only 86 yards while going 7-of-17. UCF trailed 30-20 in the second half before their rushing game pulled them ahead late. I don’t have the same faith that their running game can save them from a double-digit deficit against a Big 12 defense. TCU has historically been a football program that excels in the passing game, and I believe head coach Sonny Dykes will put Craig in the right position to be successful this Saturday.
TCU vs UCF prediction: TCU Horned Frogs -3 (-110) is available at the time of publishing. Playable to -120.
