After slipping up in back-to-back games against Troy and App State, James Madison was dominant in a bounce-back 54-23 win over Southern Miss. The Dukes’ offense is reliable, ranking top 25 in scoring offense (40.6 PPG), rushing yards per game and passing efficiency. The defense, however, has reasons for concern. JMU has surrendered 22+ points in five consecutive weeks and faces a UConn offense averaging 32.9 PPA with a top-30 EPA/play mark.
It’s no secret the Huskies’ defense isn’t exactly a top unit in the country, ranking outside the top 100 in total defense and EPA/play allowed, but the offense has proven an ability to put points on the board regardless of the opponent in front of them. UConn has scored 21+ in five straight games and has big-play potential. The Huskies rank top-10 in FBS with 55 plays of 20+ yards while JMU isn’t too far behind in 16th (51). The potential for explosive plays combined with a pair of defenses in poor form is a good recipe for the over, so I’ll back a high-scoring affair in this one.
James Madison vs UConn prediction: Over 57.5 (-110) available at time of publishing.
