Coming off an impressive three-point loss against the No. 1 team in the country, it’s no surprise to see the public is loving the Tar Heels in this spot. This matchup is seeing 74% of tickets on the Tar Heels to cover, but over half the handle is on UConn at the time of publishing. Despite UNC having the majority of public tickets, this line has moved heavily from -9.5 to -7 in most spots. Reverse line movement at its finest. UNC’s offensive performance last week was certainly an outlier compared to its season standard, but the UConn offense has produced consistent results over the last month.
UConn has the more efficient offense, ranking 18th in EPA per play compared to UNC in 57th, and the Huskies have the more explosive unit, ranking top-10 in 20+ yard plays (49) among FBS programs. While not identical, the Huskies run a similar offense in terms of tempo and explosiveness as that of Miami and Syracuse, teams UNC surrendered 31+ points against. UConn QB Kalieb Osborne has done an excellent job of taking care of the football with only two interceptions on the stat sheet. While the line movement is certainly a factor, I’ve got the Huskies’ offense continuing to flourish in this spot to keep it within one score.
UNC vs UConn prediction: UConn Huskies +7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable down to +6.5.
