The marquee game in the Big Ten on Saturday takes place on the west coast, as we'll see the Ohio State Buckeyes take on the USC Trojans in what is a vitally important game for both programs. USC truly has its back against the wall after suffering a dispiriting loss against Wisconsin a week ago, while Ohio State narrowly survived Indiana in a game that the Buckeyes were pretty fortunate to emerge with a victory. However, that win didn't come without incident, as quarterback Julian Sayin was injured and is expected to miss an extended period of time going forward. With that in mind, I'll be targeting a bet that focuses on the Ohio State offense in this one.
It's hard to price the loss of Sayin into the full game spread for this matchup, but the Buckeyes offense looked considerably worse when Luke Fahey was inserted into the game. While I lean toward USC as the right side, I'd prefer to grab the Trojans at over a touchdown at home. However, my favorite bet on this game is targeting the Ohio State offense — a unit that was already something of a work in progress even with Sayin under center. Now, the market is essentially expecting the Buckeyes to maintain a similar level of offensive production in a game that has massive stakes given the rest of their schedule. Even against a USC defense that has clear issues, I have a hard time seeing Ohio State's offense playing at a fast enough tempo to score quick touchdowns with consistency. The Buckeyes are also ranked 57th in EPA per rush and rushing success rate, so they might not be able to stay ahead of the chains on early downs, making things harder on Fahey in his first start at this level of football. On the other side, USC should primarily look to run the ball and shorten the game so it can minimize the amount of potential explosive plays the Buckeyes end up getting from Jeremiah Smith and this wide receiver room. With the full game under already getting hit, I'll target the Buckeyes team total under at the current number.
Ohio State vs USC prediction: Ohio State team total under 30.5 (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable to 28.5 (-110).
