One of the most consequential games in the College Football Playoff picture takes place between a pair of old Pac-12 rivals as the Oregon Ducks will take on the USC Trojans in what feels like a must-win game for both teams. Dan Lanning's group bounced back from a humiliating defeat in Week 2 with an 84-0 shutout of Portland State in a game that served as a way for the Ducks to hit the reset button. Few teams have been more disappointing compared to preseason expectations than Oregon, and this line was severely adjusted as a result. With the Ducks taking money since the open and now sitting as three-point favorites, I can't there with laying the points on the road. However, I don't have much confidence in Lincoln Riley's team in a big spot, especially after what I've seen so far this season. With that in mind, I'll go hunting in the derivative market and take a shot with Oregon to exceed its team total.
The full game total sits at 62.5 for this Big Ten showdown, and it makes complete sense given how both defenses have looked to this point. The good news for Dante Moore and this Oregon offense is they should get plenty of possessions against a USC defense that just allowed 30 points to Louisiana and 35 points to Rutgers following a couple of decent showings to start the season. Gary Patterson's unit has failed to create pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which is exactly what the doctor ordered for a Ducks offensive line that has struggled to protect Moore in obvious passing situations thus far. Despite struggling on a down-to-down basis against Oklahoma State, Oregon has generated plenty of explosive plays this season — and quick scores are ideal for this wager. Ultimately, I believe the Ducks salvage their season and get this done on the road, but I'm a bit more confident in their ability to put up at least 33 points in what should be a shootout in Los Angeles.
Oregon vs USC prediction: Oregon team total over 32.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to Oregon over 33.5.
