Both of these former Pac-12 foes are limping into this game following disappointing results a week ago. USC had a prime opportunity to knock off Oregon as short home underdogs, and the Trojans still came up short even after knocking Dante Moore out of the game in the first half. It's hard not to worry about the psyche of a team following that type of letdown, but Lincoln Riley's group might be playing the only team on their remaining schedule who suffered a more humiliating defeat last week. Not only did Washington loss outright as nearly a two touchdown home favorite against Minnesota, the Huskies looked bad doing it as well — finishing with just 279 yards of offense while converting on just 10% of their third downs. This continues a trend of Washington playing well below expectations, and this has created a nice bounce-back spot for USC at home on Saturday.
While we can't trust this USC team to win as an underdog, Riley has been consistently solid as a home favorite in conference play over the last few seasons. It certainly helps matters that the Trojans are playing a Washington team that is failing to cover spreads by an average of nearly 16 points per game this year — good for the worst cover margin in the nation. The Huskies are banged up at the skill positions, the line play has been sharp and Demond Williams has massively underachieved in his second season as a starter. Despite all of this, the market still hasn't caught up to just how bad this Washington team is, while USC is being penalized a bit too much following a loss against a preseason national title contender. Lastly, even though I have major concerns about USC's defense going forward, I don't believe this broken Washington offense is the unit that can exploit these weaknesses. I'll lay the points with the Trojans at home.
Washington vs USC prediction: USC -8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to USC -9.5
