Saturday’s rivalry matchup marks the first time in history that both BYU and Utah are ranked in the AP top 10 entering the Holy War. The Utes are rolling and have a laundry list of impressive underlying statistics, such as a top-10 mark nationally in EPA/play and success rate on both sides of the ball. The weakest unit in this matchup is the Cougars’ defense, and I expect Utah to have no issues finding the end zone. Utah averages 38.9 points per game and has been incredibly efficient in doing so.
While the Utah defense has been excellent, BYU’s offense is likely the best the Utes have seen all year. The Cougars rank 21st in success rate, 12th in EPA/play and have taken care of the ball well under the guidance of dual-threat QB Bear Bachmeier. The Utes have yet to face any signal caller with Bachmeier’s skillset, and the Cougars have found success against top-rated defenses, with two outright wins over top-15 units in terms of YPG allowed. With playoff implications on the line, I expect both offenses to pull out all the stops. For what it’s worth, BYU games have averaged 51.1 combined points while Utah games have averaged 54.8 combined points, with both programs combining for a 10-6 record on the over.
BYU vs Utah prediction: Over 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable up to 50.5.
