The Big 12 has an eventful week ahead of us, and the biggest game on the slate comes in Salt Lake City, where the Utah Utes will host the Houston Cougars in a game that could go a long way into determining which one of these teams ends up in the Big 12 title game. Houston continues to impress since dropping its Big 12 opener to Texas Tech, winning each of its last four games and scoring plenty of points in the process. Willie Fritz's team now faces their toughest test yet; a matchup against a Utah team that excels at home, especially in these late-night spots. With that in mind, I'm going to avoid taking a side in this matchup and I'll focus on the total instead.
Despite having faced a pretty solid schedule of opponents to this point, Houston's offense sits atop the nation in EPA per play, while checking in at fourth in success rate. Even on the road, the Cougars should be able to tally plenty of points against a Utah defense (48th in EPA per play allowed) that has yet to face an elite offense this season. On the other side, Utah's offense has been a machine all season long, and I'd expect offensive coordinator Kevin McGiven to have plenty of tricks up his sleeve involving both Devon Dampier and Byrd Ficklin at quarterback in the backfield. Utah has scored at least 30 points in all but one of its games this season, and seeing that Houston's defense struggled against the only offenses its played with a pulse (28 points allowed against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State), I have a hard time believing that the Utes are going to be consistently stopped at home. I'll back both offenses to keep on rolling on Saturday.
Over 56.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 57.
