Utah State has thrown seven interceptions in two games. I am taking the points anyway, and the defense is the reason. DraftKings has 28.5 at -118, and BetRivers has 28 at -112. The half point is worth six cents at this size.
Their defense has been the one functional unit. Utah State is allowing 4.4 yards a play and held Washington to 16 points in Seattle, losing 16-14 when a final-play heave was intercepted at the four-yard line. That is a two-point loss to a ranked team on the road, decided on the last snap.
Utah's scoring average deserves a second look before you lay this many points. The Utes have put up 54.5 a game, but that came against an FCS opponent and an Arkansas team they hosted, and they have not left Salt Lake City this season. The number has moved between 27.5 and 28.5 all week, so the market has not committed to Utah either.
Public projections put the game closer than the market does, clustering around Utah by 25 against a number of 28.5. The series is lopsided and Utah has won fifteen of the last sixteen, but the most recent meeting, in Logan two years ago, finished 38-21. That is a seventeen-point margin.
Utah State vs Utah prediction: Utah State +28.5 (-118) available at time of publishing. Playable to +28.
