A highly competitive ACC matchup is set for Friday night when the Duke Blue Devils go head-to-head against the Virginia Cavaliers. Duke is 1-2 in the ACC and has lost its last two games. The Devils are coming off a 24-20 loss on their home field to their rival school North Carolina. Duke stormed back from a 17-point deficit behind 249 passing yards for Walker Eget, but the Blue Devils allowed a go-ahead 24-yard rushing touchdown to North Carolina in the final two minutes of the game. Virginia is 2-2 in the ACC and is coming off a 23-13 road loss to SMU. Virginia kept this game within one possession until the fourth quarter, but it ultimately fell with only 258 yards of offense. Quarterback Beau Pribula finished with only 137 yards passing and zero touchdowns.
The most explosive offensive player in this game is Duke running back Nate Sheppard. He has run for 820 yards this season and eight touchdowns. Sheppard is averaging 5.9 yards per carry this season. He could prove to be a big problem against Virginia’s defense that ranks 87th against the run, allowing 152.7 rushing yards per game. When Virginia welcomed West Virginia to its home field earlier this year, West Virginia beat Virginia 38-27 behind 247 yards rushing and three touchdowns on the ground. Defending the run has proven to be a weakness for Virginia all season, and I expect head coach Manny Diaz to attempt to exploit it on Friday night.
If the Blue Devils’ running game could get going, Pribula and the Cavalier offense may not be able to keep up. Pribula has been mediocre in recent games, only throwing for more than 200 yards in one of his last five games. It is worth noting the one game he threw for more than 200 yards was against Delaware. Pribula has been limited with key players missing with injuries from his receiving core. Rico Flores Jr. and Kam Courtney have both missed time. The injury to Flores has been key after he was brought in to be Virginia’s number one receiver in the offseason. He had begun finding his rhythm before the knee injury. For this matchup, we have already seen an opponent come into Virginia’s home stadium and beat the Wahoos on the ground. I expect Sheppard to have a big day and for Virginia’s offense not to be able to keep up.
Duke vs Virginia prediction: Duke ML (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to -110.
