A pivotal showdown in the ACC headlines the Friday when the Pittsburgh Panthers take on the Virginia Tech Hokies in Blacksburg. These coaching staffs are extremely familiar with each other and there's a ton of familiarity between these programs as a whole over the last decade. The series has been dominated by Pittsburgh in the 2020s, but I'm pretty in line with the market when it comes to the spread in this one, so I don't see much value in backing either side. Instead, I'm going to target the total and focus on what should be a higher-scoring affair on Friday.
For starters, both offenses should hold advantages over the opposing defenses in this matchup. Virginia Tech has hit the ground running in the James Franklin era, with the Hokies averaging nearly 34 points per game against FBS opponents through the first month of the campaign. James Franklin's side already put up 35 on Maryland — a program he has personal animosity with — and the former Penn State coach has certainly had it out with Pittsburgh head coach Pat Narduzzi over the years. It wouldn't be a surprise if the Hokies didn't take their foot off the gas in this one, and they'll also have their own issues defending against this prolific Pittsburgh offense. The Panthers are ranked 25th in adjusted EPA per play, while sitting at a +13.5% success rate edge over their opponents to this point. With that in mind, Mason Heintschel (13 TDs to 1 INT) should see plenty of success against the Virginia Tech defense that shouldn't be expected to hold the Panthers below 24-27 points at a minimum. All things considered, I can only look at the over in this one.
Pittsburgh vs Virginia Tech prediction: Over 54.5 (-118) available at time of publishing. Playable to Over 55.
