Let's start with the obvious. Colorado State hasn't won on the road this season, but that's not even the most interesting part of this matchup. Washington State is 1-8, hasn't beaten an FBS opponent all year and has dropped six straight games. Yet somehow, the Cougars opened laying 10.5 points. Think about that. We're talking about a team that hasn't won a game against FBS opposition being installed as a double-digit favorite. That tells me considerably more about how the bookmakers view this matchup than either team's record. The market has dove in on the Rams and drove the price down but Colorado State's defense provides a pretty compelling explanation as to why they were priced in the range they were initially.
The Rams just surrendered 64 points to Boise State. They've also conceded 49 to San Diego State, 56 to Oregon State and 59 to UTSA. CSU managed to beat Texas State 66-56, but that's hardly an endorsement of their defensive capabilities. This is a team whose defense has an extraordinarily high pitch count, and opponents have repeatedly demonstrated how easily they can put points on the board. Washington State hasn't given bettors much reason to trust it, but the market is asking us to lay more than a touchdown with the Cougars anyway. That's not something I'm prepared to dismiss. The number is telling us which side to take and I'm listening.
Colorado State vs Washington State prediction: Washington State Cougars -9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable from -8.5 to -10.5.
