The Wisconsin Badgers will return home after their stunning 24-20 comeback win in Penn State this weekend to play the Michigan State Spartans. Since losing to Notre Dame in the opening week, a game in which the Badgers were closer than the score indicates, Wisconsin has rattled off three straight wins – two of them being covers. However, the Badgers will be in unfamiliar territory this weekend as a double-digit favorite over a power conference opponent (there is a -9.5 still out there at the time of writing). Assuming they close at -10 or bigger, this will be the first time they play in this role since Week 4 last year, when they lost outright to Maryland 27-10.
Michigan State is the inverse of Wisconsin, sitting at 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS. However, Sparty’s first two games were against MAC teams, and they didn’t look all that great against Toledo in Week 1. Their last two games were against top-tier opponents, and they scored just 23 points combined while giving up 58 and being outgained by over 300 yards. Sparty’s last game was especially devastating, as they lost transfer RB Cam Edwards for the rest of the season, while offensive lineman Connor Moore and defensive leader Jordan Hall also left the game, as well as multiple other pieces.
The Badgers don’t have the profile of a profitable double-digit favorite. They have a turnover problem, they don’t stay ahead of the sticks and they don’t finish their drives with touchdowns at the rate you would expect from a team favored by this much. It’s not exactly a great spot for Wisconsin either; it’s a prime hangover spot after their comeback win in Happy Valley, and this is an easy game to look past given the bye next week before three consecutive ranked matchups. That said, Sparty is so banged up right now, and losing Edwards means the Spartans will be without their best piece when it comes to ball control and extending drives. The depth behind him isn’t nearly as good. Small lean to the Badgers given the issues with Michigan State’s attrition, but there’s hardly any value in it.
Michigan State vs Wisconsin prediction: Wisconsin -9.5 (-118) available at time of publishing. Playable to -10 (-110).
