Last week, Wisconsin was priced in this range on the road against UCLA, a team ranked #12 in the country at the time. The Badgers fell 17-7 in the Rose Bowl. Now, a week later, the same unranked Wisconsin team is catching another short number at home against #16 USC. Doesn't that make the Trojans look a little too easy here?
After all, Wisconsin couldn't get past UCLA, while the Men of Troy demonstrated that they can go East and win when they completed a happy trip to Happy Valley and knocked off Penn State two weeks ago. USC's previous road woes have seemingly been forgotten over one result, and the market has every reason to attract bettors looking to lay points with the ranked visitors who are also the better rested outfit coming in. The Trojans enter off a bye and the last time the market saw them, they saw them handling the Nittany Lions.
But the price tells me something different. It says to me that the Badgers are live and USC shouldn't be considered a lock. Wisconsin was unranked last week, lost by 10, and now gets another ranked opponent without receiving a more generous number, albeit it is in Madison. If USC were as trustworthy as the Penn State result may suggest, why isn't the market asking the Trojans to lay more? The number suggests there's still hesitation about trusting USC in this spot or perhaps the Badgers will foster a different result. There's no other reason for Wisconsin to be priced this competitively unless the Badgers are a legitimate threat to win outright. I'll take the upset.
USC Trojans vs. Wisconsin Badgers prediction: Wisconsin +134 (ML) available at time of publishing. Playable to +125.
