We have to put a puzzle together to break this one down, but let's address the elephant in the room before we go sightseeing. Should Air Force really be favored on the road in Laramie, where it's notoriously difficult to play? I don't believe so. This is a reactionary line. Last week the Fly Guys were initially favored against UNLV, a team that had just ended North Dakota State's undefeated run. The market loved the Rebels and saw them go from 1.5-point 'dogs to 1.5-point favorites. Air Force would win 41-31, and that sets the stage here.
Speaking of North Dakota State, Air Force previously lost a 38-32 shootout to those same Bison in September -- while Wyoming got blanked 28-0 in Fargo back in early October. Put recent results and that common opponent outcome together and suddenly Air Force deserves to be road chalk against a Wyoming team that's 3-0 straight up at home? That's an insult to the Pokes themselves. And I suspect we'll be hearing plenty of Ragtime Cowboy in Laramie. The Falcons surrendered 33 points in a 36-33 nail-biter against a Nevada team in turmoil when they ventured to Reno. Their defensive numbers are flattered by a shutout of FCS Duquesne, a rivalry rock fight with a Navy team in Annapolis that is a one-trick pony, and a blowout of winless Northern Illinois, which managed just seven points. Against any form of competent opposition with a dynamic offense, the Academy has surrendered over 30 points in each of those contests. Wyoming, averaging nearly 30 points per game when at home, has every opportunity to capitalize with its supporters behind them. Getting the Pokes at +178 in their own backyard is a bargain. I'm going in.
Air Force vs Wyoming prediction: Wyoming ML (+178) available at time of publishing. Playable to +170.
