College Football Week 7 Best Bets: Saturday, October 17

It might be spooky season, but there are no tricks this week in college football. With a loaded Saturday card that includes six ranked matchups, it’s all treats this weekend for college football fans. Ahead of the action, I have three CFB best bets to make for Saturday’s slate. We’re currently enjoying a 9-3 run on our last 12 Saturday best bets, and I’m hoping to sweep the board with this trio of picks to improve that record even further. Let’s get into the breakdown, while you can always get our CFB picks for tips and analysis on every FBS game throughout the year. 

CFB Week 7 Best Bet: Cincinnati Bearcats Team Total over 30.5 vs West Virginia Mountaineers (-120)

Odds available at BetMGM at the time of publishing. Playable to -130 at that number or 31.5 (+100).

Having surrendered at least 41 points in all three conference games, to say the West Virginia Mountaineers are struggling defensively would be an understatement. They’re 124th in points (32.7) and 131st in yards per game allowed (460.8), and they can’t contain explosives. The Mountaineers have allowed the most 20+ yard plays (44) in the country according to CFBStats, which adds a bit more context as to why they’re 130th in non-garbage-time scoring opportunities allowed thus far. Not to mention, this defense is probably gassed; they haven’t had a bye week yet and won’t for another two weeks. In fact, West Virginia's defense has been on the field for more plays than 113 other teams (CollegeFootballData). Meanwhile, Cincinnati will travel to Morgantown fresh off a bye week.

Not only is WVU bad defensively, but the Mountaineers play fast when they have the ball, sitting third nationally in seconds per play (Team-Rankings). That type of pace mixed with extreme defensive inefficiency is a tough combination to overcome in terms of points suppression. 

Coming off the bye, Cincinnati should produce against this defense even with his game being played on the road. Prior to their trip to Arizona, the Bearcats reached 31 in every game, as they boast a top-25 offense in PPA per play, explosiveness and points per scoring opportunity, along with the third-best mark nationally in red-zone touchdown rate (85%). They’ve already shown home-run upside out of the backfield with RBs Gi’Bran Payne and Cole Tabb, while QB JC French IV should be able to easily navigate this secondary that’s bottom-five in PPA per pass and pass success allowed outside of garbage time. Under a key number of 31, this is an easy click for Saturday’s card.

CFB Week 7 Best Bet: Missouri Tigers +6.5 over Ole Miss Rebels (-122)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +4 (-115).

Six points? I realize Ole Miss put up 52 last week, but this seems heavy for the Rebels against a very capable and well-coached Missouri squad. These teams are neck and neck in my power ratings, and Missouri has the vastly better defense – it’s not even close really. The Tigers are top-15 in yards per play, PPA per play, success rate, stuff rate, havoc generated and standard downs rate allowed with a top-30 strength of schedule according to Sagarin. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is 71st in yards per play, 115th in PPA per play, 125th in success rate and 95th in points per scoring opportunity allowed. On top of that, the Rebels are outside the top 110 in penalties per game, and they haven’t been able to consistently get their opponents off the field on third downs. Their strength of schedule has been slightly harder, but not enough to merit those numbers. 

On top of the defensive edge and not-so-arguable coaching advantage, Missouri has a couple players in QB Austin Simmons and WR Cayden Lee looking for some revenge against their former club. Simmons can be wild at times, as shown by his six turnover-worthy plays, but to give credit where it’s due, he’s been one of the better quarterbacks in the conference, and he enjoys testing opposing secondaries – as shown by his SEC-leading 11.2 ADOT and the second-most passing touchdowns in the league. Needless to say, I don’t expect him to meet much resistance through the air against a Rebels secondary that is 98th in PPA per pass and 114th in pass success allowed. Ole Miss isn’t much better stopping the run either, which is a nightmare against Mizzou RB Jamal Roberts – who is second nationally in total rushing yards and first nationally in yards after contact (PFF). For what it’s worth, PFF has Ole Miss 123rd in tackling.

Check out our full Missouri vs Ole Miss prediction

CFB Week 7 Best Bet: Miami Hurricanes -21 over Florida State Seminoles (-115)

Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -23 (+100). 

Florida State was up 14-0 and staring a 21-0 lead in the face in Louisville last week before the Seminoles failed on fourth down and immediately proceeded to give up a 97-yard touchdown, swinging the momentum into Louisville's favor for the rest of the game – during which the Cardinals outscored the ‘Noles 44-6. FSU now faces their second straight road game this week, as they will go up against their in-state rival and national runners-up in the Miami Hurricanes, who come into this game off a bye and have no sort of lookahead next week. In fact, I’d imagine the Hurricanes are pretty focused on this one, as the Seminoles made last season’s game look much closer than it actually was when they scored 19 unanswered points in the fourth quarter of what amounted to a 28-22 win for Miami.

This year’s Hurricanes are better offensively than they were last year. They’ve scored at least 41 points in every game sans one, including a road game at Clemson, and with a week of rest ahead of this one, I’d expect them to at least be in that range again this week. Miami QB Darian Mensah should piece up this FSU defense, as the Seminoles have one of the 12 least efficient stop-units in the country outside of garbage time (CollegeFootballData), while they’re outside the top 100 in yards per play, PPA per play and success rate allowed. In the secondary specifically, the ‘Noles are 108th in yards per pass attempt and 114th in passing yards allowed per game (CFBStats). On the other side of the ball, FSU QB Ashton Daniels can play pretty loose with the ball from time to time, which is especially detrimental against a Miami defense that averages two takeaways per game in its last three contests. All ‘Canes, no brakes. 

Now get our favorite CFB player props for Saturday's Week 7 slate