Matthew Lowrimore
Pickswise ExpertMatthew's Picks
The first fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 267 will see Zach Reese take on Michel Pereira. This will be a fight in the UFC Middleweight division. Reese enters this fight with an MMA record of 10-2 and 5-2 in the UFC. He averages 4.32 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 56%. Reese absorbs 3.82 strikes and has a striking defense of 39%. His grappling has been elite, averaging 3.41 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.4 submission attempts during the same period. He has a takedown accuracy of 66% and a takedown defense of 57%.
Pereira enters this fight with an MMA record of 31-14 and 9-5 in the UFC. He averages 4.46 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. Pereira absorbs 4.23 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.27 takedowns every 15 minutes. Pereira has a takedown accuracy of 52% and a takedown defense of 76%.
Pereira is the moderate favorite in this fight; however, Reese looks to be a solid betting option. For one, Pereira has been in terrible form as of late, going 0-3 in his last 3 UFC fights. Meanwhile, Reese is 4-1 in his last 5 UFC fights.
Pereira and Reese are comparable when it comes to striking volume, but Reese has the clear edge in grappling. Because of this, backing Reese to win will be our best bet.
The third fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 267 will see Serghei Spivac take on Ante Delija. This will be a fight in the UFC Heavyweight division. Spivac enters this fight with an MMA record of 17-6 and 8-6 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.45 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Spivac is absorbing 4.25 strikes and has a striking defense of 50%. His grappling has been elite, averaging 4.21 takedowns every 15 minutes. Spivac has a takedown accuracy of 62% and a takedown defense of 63%.
Delija enters this fight with an MMA record of 26-7 and 1-1 in the UFC. He averages 4.81 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. Delija absorbs 2.65 strikes and has a striking defense of 38%.
Neither fighter has been consistent enough to bet on the money line; therefore, we will be looking for this fight to end by KO/TKO. Delija has only fought in 2 UFC fights, but both ended by KO/TKO. As for Spivac, he has seen 5 of his last 8 UFC fights end by this method. For that reason, backing this fight to end by KO/TKO will be our lean.
The Co-Main Event at UFC Fight Night 267 will see Geoff Neal take on Uros Medic. This will be a fight in the UFC Welterweight division. Neal enters this fight with an MMA record of 16-7 and 9-5 in the UFC. He is averaging 5.05 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. Neal absorbs 5.48 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. His grappling has not been strong, averaging just 0.54 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 45% and a takedown defense of 87%
Medic enters this fight with an MMA record of 12-3 and 7-3 in the UFC. He is averaging 5.53 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 60%. Medic is absorbing 3.46 strikes and has a striking defense of 56%. His grappling has not been strong, averaging 0.35 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 50% and a takedown defense of 55%.
Neal is the overwhelming favorite in this fight; however, Medic looks to be the best betting option. Medic is 3-1 over his last 4 UFC fights, while Neal is 1-3 over the same stretch. Further, Medic has the advantage in striking volume and absorbs far less damage compared to Neal. For that reason, backing Medic to pull off the upset will be our best bet.
The second fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 267 will see Jacobe Smith take on Josiah Harrell. This will be a fight in the UFC Welterweight division. Smith enters this fight with an MMA record of 11-0 and 3-0 in the UFC. He averages 6.21 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 66%. Smith is absorbing 2.86 strikes and has a striking defense of 47%. His grappling has also been elite in the UFC, averaging 7.42 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 90% and a takedown defense of 100%.
Harrell enters this fight with an MMA record of 11-0, and this will be his official UFC debut. He has won a total of 10 fights by finish in his career, including 6 by KO/TKO and 4 by submission.
Smith is one of the heaviest favorites on the fight card; however, he still looks to be the best betting option. For one, Smith has UFC experience, while Harrell does not. Further, Smith dominated all of his UFC opponents and has already shown elite striking and grappling ability. Harrell is undefeated in the MMA as well, but with this being his UFC debut, backing Smith will be our lean.
The fourth fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 267 will see Dan Ige take on Melquizael Costa. This will be a fight in the UFC Featherweight division. Ige enters this fight with an MMA record of 19-10 and 12-9 in the UFC. He averages 3.64 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. Ige absorbs 3.56 strikes and has a striking defense of 56%. His grappling is decent, averaging 0.89 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 25% and a takedown defense of 56%.
Costa enters this fight with an MMA record of 25-7 and 6-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.42 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49%. Costa absorbs 3.06 strikes and has a striking defense of 54%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.93 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.2 submission attempts during the same period. He has a takedown accuracy of 38% and a takedown defense of 58%.
Costa is the heavy favorite; however, he still looks to be the best betting option. Costa has won 5 UFC fights in a row, while Ige is 2-3 in his last 5 UFC fights and 2-4 in his last 6 UFC fights. Further, Costa has the advantage in both striking volume and grappling. For that reason, backing Costa to win will be our lean.
The Main Event at UFC Fight Night 267 will see Sean Strickland take on Anthony Hernandez. This will be a fight in the UFC Middleweight division. Strickland enters this fight with an MMA record of 29-7 and 16-7 in the UFC. He is averaging 5.95 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42%. Strickland is absorbing 4.57 strikes and has a striking defense of 60%. His grappling, however, has not been strong, averaging 0.73 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 64% and a takedown defense of 76%.
Hernandez enters this fight with an MMA record of 15-2 and 9-2 in the UFC. He averages 4.59 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 62%. Hernandez absorbs 2.53 strikes and has a striking defense of 49%. His grappling has been elite in the UFC, averaging 6.46 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.8 submission attempts during the same period. Hernandez has a takedown accuracy of 48% and a takedown defense of 68%.
Hernandez is the clear favorite in this fight; however, we will be looking for this fight to end inside the distance. Strickland has not seen many of his UFC fights end inside the distance, but Hernandez has seen 9 of his 11 UFC fights end inside the distance. Both fighters have excellent striking ability, plus Hernandez is an elite grappler. Therefore, because Strickland and Hernandez both have several paths to win, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be our best bet.