Ricky Dimon

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The Big Ten Tournament is moving into the quarterfinal round on Friday, and one of the most intriguing games on the slate comes in the form of a matchup between the Wisconsin Badgers and Illinois Fighting Illini from Chicago. Wisconsin is as hot as any team in the conference at the moment, ending the season with a flourish by dropping 97 points in a win over Purdue at Mackey Arena. The Badgers have 14 wins in their last 17 games dating back to January 6, and that stretch included victories over Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, UCLA and this same Illinois team in Champaign on February 10. With that in mind, even though it would be understandable to target Illinois to exact a bit of revenge in this spot, I can’t get there with laying nearly 3 full possessions with the Illini against an offense of Wisconsin’s calendar.

This is not a matchup that should feature much defense, and that sort of game script should play into how Wisconsin wants to attack this contest. The Badgers are a threat to knock down 15 or more threes in any game they play, and we saw them hit 16 threes and shoot over 40% from downtown in the first meeting one month ago. Illinois does a fairly good job in terms of limiting opponents inside the arc, but the Illini are ranked 255th in 3-point rate allowed on defense, so it wouldn’t shock me if the Badgers are able to attempt 40 threes in this one. That level of variance is something I generally like betting with an underdog, especially in a game where both teams are going to attempt a ton of threes and we should see plenty of possessions. Furthermore, it’s also important to mention that Illinois is dealing with a couple of key injury and/or illness questions heading into this one, including freshman phenom Keaton Wagler (back spasms) and guard Andrej Stojakovic (flu). This should be an entertaining game from start to finish, and I’ll gladly take the points with the underdog.

Wisconsin vs Illinois prediction: Wisconsin +8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.5.

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The top seeds finally get involved in the Big Ten tournament on Friday, as the Nebraska Cornhuskers enter the mix to face the Purdue Boilermakers. The Boilers dispatched Northwestern on Thursday with relative ease, but the home stretch of their regular season was anything but pretty. They lost 3 of their last 4, including 2 at home. They beat the Huskers in overtime a few weeks ago (more on that game below), but this will probably be a battle. I think people nationwide still fail to realize just how good this Nebraska team is, and there is a reason it is the #2 seed. Catching 4 points in this spot? That’s a definite play for me.

These teams profile very similarly — good offense, good defense, they both score inside the arc well, and neither gets to the line often, nor sends the opponent there often. The difference in the profile is that Nebraska both takes a ton of 3s and also defends the arc well, while Purdue allows a lot of 3s and does not defend them very well. The reason that didn’t add up to a win for Nebraska in the regular season is because it got out-rebounded 52 to 33, including 20 to 4 on the offensive glass. Nobody wins basketball games like that at any level. Even if Purdue is qualitatively better on the boards, getting dominated that heavily is just an effort issue. Nebraska should close that gap on the glass, and this game will swing the other way.

All season, Purdue has been something of a “pretty boy” team — it dominates bad teams, but once it faces an equal it gets exposed. I expect the same thing here. The Boilermakers are also a bad cover team, sitting at just 13-18 against the spread on the season. Nebraska can and will hang with Purdue and could very well win outright. Let’s take the points.

Purdue vs Nebraska prediction: Nebraska +4 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +2.5.

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Fifth-seeded Iowa State will look to pull off an upset in the Big 12 tournament as they get ready to take on #1 Arizona. These teams met back on March 2nd, when Arizona dominated in a 73-57 victory, holding the Cyclones to just 29.2% shooting and out-rebounding them 40 to 33. Arizona has been one of the best teams in college basketball this season; the Wildcats led the Big 12 in scoring, averaging 86.5 points per game, compared to Iowa State’s 81.8. Defensively, however, the Cyclones hold a slight edge. Iowa State allowed just 64.6 points per game this season — while Arizona gave up 68.3. 

Since their loss to Arizona, Iowa State regained its form, winning its last 3 games, including a win over a strong Texas Tech team. In this matchup, the Cyclones will need to find a way to limit the Wildcats’ ability to rebound the ball. Arizona averages 45.9 rebounds per game compared to Iowa State’s 38.8. Moreover, Arizona has one of the most efficient offenses in the Big 12 this season, which will make it tough for Iowa State to keep pace. With the Wildcats well-rested heading into this game and the Cyclones coming off back-to-back games, fatigue could be an issue for Iowa State as the game progresses. Look for Arizona to push the pace early and test Iowa State’s defense. While the Cyclones may be able to keep things close at first, the Wildcats’ depth and extra rest should allow them to pull away as the game goes on. 

Iowa State vs Arizona prediction: Arizona -4 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.