Ricky Dimon

The Montreal Canadiens will be trying to take a commanding 3-1 lead in their Eastern Conference semifinal series against the Buffalo Sabres when these 2 teams tangle again in Montreal on Tuesday night. Having won consecutive contests by a combined margin of 11-3, the Habs have a ton of momentum heading into Game 4. I think they should be able to maintain it, so my Sabres vs Canadiens pick is for the home team to prevail. As a 6-2 scoreline in Game 3 suggests, the Canadiens were by far the superior side on Sunday. They produced more shots and more hits, won more faceoffs and compiled fewer penalty minutes. The Sabres scored just 1 goal in 5-on-5 situations. Montreal found the back of the net 4 times in 5-on-5, and none of its goals came on an empty net. It was simply legitimate domination from start to finish.

Perhaps even more alarming for Buffalo is that it got clobbered in Game 2 at home even though it came up with more shots and more hits while taking fewer penalty minutes. That would indicate that Montreal is getting more high-danger scoring chances and also better goaltending. And that would be true. Jakub Dobes has amassed a 2.13 goals-against average and .918 save percentage during these playoffs. The Sabres, on the other hand, have a decision to make regarding goalies Alex Lyon and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. Neither one inspires much confidence. Luukkonen started the first 2 games of round 1 against the Bruins, during which he was saddled with a dreadful 4.19 GAA and a .821 SVP. UPL hasn’t been seen on the ice since. Lyon came out hot when he got his opportunity, but he has allowed a ridiculous 9 goals in his last 2 starts. The Habs have won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matchups and 8 of the last 11. Seven of those 8 victories have come by multiple goals.

Sabres vs Canadiens Game 4 prediction: Montreal ML (-134) available at time of publishing. Playable to -140.

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