Ricky Dimon

Philadelphia’s offense is too talented to stay in a funk. Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, AJ Brown… The offensive line is a bit banged up, but Chicago’s defense does not boast a great pass rush (23 sacks this year) even when healthy – and in this game it will be using backup linebackers all over the place (and maybe some backup DEs, too).

On the other side of the ball, Bears head coach Ben Johnson has his offense humming. Caleb William is starting to live up to his #1 pick billing, as he sports a 16-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has also rushed for 3 scores. Chicago is #6 league wide in total offense and #8 in scoring offense. This is not a big number, so it’s one that should be surpassed.

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Atlanta Hawks will wrap up group-stage competition in the NBA Cup when they square off on Friday night in Atlanta. Neither team is setting the world on fire offensively this season, but Cleveland is 12-7 and Atlanta is 11-8 thanks in part to solid defense. The Hawks are more defense-oriented these days since Trae Young has been out for a month. Onyeka Okongwu, Jalen Johnson and steals machine Dyson Daniels are all playing stellar defense. Atlanta played a stinker at Washington on Tuesday, but that was an aberration as opposed to the rule. Head coach Quin Snyder’s squad had previously held New Orleans to 98 points and Charlotte to 110. Those factors are among the reasons why my Cavaliers vs Hawks pick is under 240.5.

Big man Jarrett Allen is back for Cleveland after missing a week. Allen is effective offensively, but his presence will also make scoring in the paint more difficult for the Hawks — plus he will limit second-chance opportunities. The Cavs have held 4 of their last 6 opponents to 109 points or fewer. At the other end of the floor, head coach Kenny Atkinson’s crew is coming off a dreadful 99-point performance against Toronto on Monday. This is the second-biggest number on the NBA’s 11-game Friday slate, and I think it’s one that is slightly too big.

Cavaliers vs Hawks prediction: Under 240.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Pickens is absolutely balling in his first season with the Cowboys, especially in recent weeks. Over the past 2 games he has caught 18 of 20 targets for 290 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Georgia product has now found the endzone 8 times in 2025 to go along with 1,054 yards. Kansas City’s defense is good, but starting nickel back Chris Rowland-Wallace being out does not help. The bottom line is that right now it hardly matters who is defending Pickens. 

I am far more enthused about the game total, for which my Falcons vs Jets pick is under 40. Atlanta’s offense is mediocre at best — especially with Cousins running the show instead of Penix. Although Penix is nothing special in the early stages of his career, he can at least move around in and out of the pocket to extend plays. Cousins obviously cannot — which could be especially costly for Atlanta since the offensive line is currently depleted. The Falcons put up a respectable 24 points last weekend, but the Saints’ defense is not any good — plus a lot of that had to do with the defense setting up the offense in favorable spots. There was little production aside from a 47-yard touchdown bomb from Cousins to Darnell Mooney. Drake London is questionable with a knee injury that kept him out of the game against New Orleans, so Mooney may be tasked to step up once again.

As expected, the Jets’ offense has been a disaster in 2025. It is #29 overall and #27 in scoring. Since Week 5 they have exceeded the 14-point mark only twice. One of those occasions was against the Bengals, which should not even count. The other one saw 2 of their touchdowns come on special teams (1 kick return, 1 punt return) during a 27-20 victory over the Browns. Wide receiver Garrett Wilson missed last week’s 23-10 setback against Baltimore due to a knee problem and is expected to be sidelined for at least a few more games. The Jets probably won’t contribute much at all, and even the Falcons can’t be expected to post a big number.

Falcons vs Jets prediction: Under 40 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 39.

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My other Saints vs Dolphins play is under 42.5, and I like it almost as much as the ATS bet. After all, hammering the under when New Orleans’ offense is involved generally pays off. The under is an amazing 6-0-1 in the Saints’ last 7 overall, largely because their offense has been inept. They have reached the 20-point mark only twice this entire year, and those 2 exceptions were 21-point and 26-point efforts. Moreover, New Orleans has scored 14, 3, 10, 17 and 10 points in its past 5 appearances. Rookie QB Tyler Shough has been predictably bland since taking over from Spencer Rattler. The Louisville product has thrown 3 TD passes and 3 INTs through 4 starts, good for a QBR of 41.3.

Fortunately for the Saints, their defense is by no means terrible. It is a run that ranks #9 against the pass and is giving up only 4.0 yards per rushing attempt, so it is pretty solid in both departments. Tagovailoa has been decent of late, but he is not getting a ton of help from his pass-catching corps. Although Jaylen Waddle has been productive at times, he is more effective as a WR2 — but WR1 is the role he has been forced into since Tyreek Hill is out for the season. Expect both offenses to struggle on Sunday.

Saints vs Dolphins prediction: Under 42.5 (-118) available at time of publishing. Playable to 41.5.

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Everything about this Houston team provides a recipe for low-scoring affairs, so my Texans vs Colts pick is under 44.5. Unfortunately for the visitors, their incredible defense is not exactly complemented by an overly productive offense. Running back Joe Mixon has been out for the entire season, and the injury-plagued Nick Chubb is a shadow of his former self, so there is little ground game of which to speak. Woody Marks has done his best to fill in, but he is not a serious threat. The Texans, in all likelihood, will also once again be playing with their backup quarterback, Davis Mills. CJ Stroud remains in the NFL’s concussion protocol and is questionable for this weekend. Mills can play mistake-free football, but he isn’t a real threat.

Indianapolis RB Jonathan Taylor is obviously dangerous, but Houston’s defense is also stout against the run. It ranks #5 league wide in rushing defense, giving up just 92.2 yards per contest. Taylor is coming off his worst outing of the season, having been limited to 66 yards from scrimmage (58 on the ground) by Kansas City. As for Jones, he has almost as many interceptions (4) as touchdown passes (5) over the past 3 games. The number is low, so I would proceed with caution — but the under is the play for these 2 teams.

Texans vs Colts prediction: Under 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Packers do not call a whole lot of designed runs for their quarterback, but Love will probably be under duress a fair amount on Thursday – forcing him to improvise. It would be no surprise if he is forced to tuck it and run more than a few times in this matchup against Aidan Hutchinson and a Detroit defense that ranks eighth in the NFL with 32 sacks (Hutchinson has 8.5). The Lions have faced the second-most QB rushing attempts in the entire league (63), which have turned into 212 yards. Love has recorded double-digit rushing yards in 7 of the last 10 outings. Against Detroit he produced a 23-yard performance last season and a 39-yard effort during the 2023 campaign. 

This is currently the highest total of the week, tied with a game involving the Bengals — which is always going to be a monster number regardless of who they are playing. In the case of this game, I think it’s a number slightly too large. As a result, my Chiefs vs Cowboys pick is under 51.5. This Kansas City offense simply is not the same as it was in recent seasons. Travis Kelce’s production is declining and the running game is borderline nonexistent. Now the Chiefs are facing a Cowboys defense that has progressed from horrendous to perhaps at least somewhat respectable. The Eagles did not score a single point over the final 41 minutes this past weekend.

Fortunately for head coach Andy Reid’s side, the defense has been solid. Kansas City ranks #8 league wide against the run (97.6 yards per game allowed) and #11 against the pass (195.4 yards). It is also #4 in scoring, allowing a mere 18.3 points per contest. Jacksonville (31 points) is the only  Chiefs opponent that has reached the 30-point mark this entire year, and that was only because the Jags returned an interception 99 yards for a touchdown. There will be some offense on Thursday — but probably not to the extent that a 51.5 number suggests.

Chiefs vs Cowboys prediction: Under 51.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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By the time Week 14 rolls around, #1 overall Cam Ward should have found his footing in the NFL. That’s not to say Tennessee’s offense will be a well-oiled machine at this point, but it should at least resemble something respectable. As for the 49ers, they seem to be a team on the decline. This franchise might be tempted to blow it all up sooner rather than later, and this late in the 2025 campaign it could be time to tank for a high draft pick. There’s no way I’m giving the Titans more than a touchdown.