Going up against a service academy with an extra week to prepare, Nevada is going to have to be able to stop the run if they want to cover, much less win this game outright. That said, I have my concerns with this Wolf Pack run defense, and I don't trust their offense to keep up with the Falcons.

There are probably tons of trends that point to the Steelers as home ‘dogs in this spot, but all that data would have been from Mike Tomlin’s tenure. He’s now in the studio with NBC, so that historical data is about as relevant as the head-to-head metrics from when Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger were playing. As such, I have a hard time picking against Joe Burrow and this Cincinnati offense, paired with what appears to be a much-improved Bengals defense.

Watson looked passable last week, but it’s hard to find much confidence in that being a real thing considering what he has consistently put on tape the last few years. Meanwhile, Bryce Young has started to blossom under Dave Canales, and with Chuba Hubbard, Tetairoa McMillian, Jalen Coker and now Darren Waller at his disposal, he has all he needs to take advantage of a Cleveland defense that is 28th in success rate and 24th in EPA per play thus far.

I don’t expect much from Pittsburgh’s offense, as this unit is league-worst in yards per play and third-worst in yards per point. It doesn’t help the Steelers or the aging Aaron Rodgers that the Bengals defense has improved this season, sitting top-10 in yards per play, yards per point and EPA per play, as well as top-12 in success rate.

What this comes down to is whether you believe Cleveland’s offense is for real with Deshaun Watson at the helm. I need more than a one-game sample size to be convinced of that after years of ineptitude, so I naturally expect regression this week.