Sam Avellone

Iowa’s recent bowl history includes more SEC opponents than not, and much of the same is true this year when the Hawkeyes meet the Vanderbilt Commodores in the ReliaQuest Bowl on New Year’s Eve at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. Iowa finished the season 8-4 with losses to Iowa State, Indiana, Oregon, and USC. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt finished just outside of the College Football Playoff at 10-2, losing at Alabama and Texas. This game represents a strength-on-strength battle when Vanderbilt’s offense goes up against Iowa’s defense, but also a weakness-on-weakness battle when the Hawkeyes go up against the ‘Dores defense. 

Vanderbilt stud TE Eli Stowers will not play in this game, which will be a big loss for the ‘Dores. However, assuming everyone else plays, which is expected as of Monday morning, Vanderbilt still should have plenty in the tank offensively. Heisman-hopeful QB Diego Pavia is expected to be under center in what figures to be his final collegiate game, and he will be surrounded by capable playmakers at Vanderbilt’s skill positions in RB Sedrick Alexander, WR Tre Richadson, and WR Junior Sherrill. It is Alexander that I believe will be the catalyst for Vanderbilt’s success in this game, as Iowa’s weakest defensive attributes are on the ground. For reference, Iowa is outside the top 50 in PPA per rush and rushing success rate allowed this season, and it was even worse down the stretch – as Hawkeyes are 83rd in PPA per rush and 75th in rushing success rate allowed since Week 9. Furthermore, they haven’t generated a ton of havoc in that stretch, which should give Pavia more time to operate as the maestro of this offense – a unit that finished the season 1st in PPA per play, 2nd in success rate, and 5th in points per quality drive outside of garbage time. 

On the other side of the ball, Vanderbilt is nowhere near the same level of efficiency defensively as it is offensively. However, Iowa hardly poses a threat when it has the ball. The Hawkeyes are 95th in yards per play and 121st in total offense this season, as well as outside the top 50 PPA per play and success rate since Week 9. The strongest part of this offense is its run game, which just so happens to be the best attribute of Vanderbilt’s defense. The Commodores are top-15 in rushing yards allowed per game, and they are top-35 in PPA per rush outside of garbage time since Week 9. 

So long as Pavia and Alexander play, I trust Vanderbilt’s offense way more than Iowa’s, even if the Commodores struggle defensively. Look for Pavia and the ‘Dores to play with a chip on their shoulders in a win and cover over Iowa. 

Iowa vs Vanderbilt prediction: Commodores -4 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better. 

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The College Football Playoff resumes on Wednesday after a much-too-long break between the first round and the second round. There will only be one CFP matchup on New Year’s Eve before the final 3 quarterfinal games are played on New Year’s Day, and that lone matchup pits the 11-2 Miami Hurricanes and the 12-1 Ohio State Buckeyes. The Hurricanes come into this playoff matchup on the heels of a 10-3 first-round win over Texas A&M in College Station, but they were outgained, had 9 fewer first downs, and converted just 25% of their third downs. The keys to victory were the 3 turnovers they forced and the 6.3 yards per rush they averaged against the Aggies defense. 

At 87th nationally in giveaways per game, the Aggies were very much turnover-prone this year. Ohio State is a completely different animal, as the Buckeyes average just 0.7 giveaways per game – good for 4th nationally. Much of that is due to OSU QB Julian Sayin’s ball security, as the first-year starter has just 6 interceptions on 6 turnover-worthy plays. Compare that to TAMU QB Marcel Reed, who finished the year with 12 interceptions and 22 turnover-worthy plays – tied for 3rd-most nationally. Considering Sayin finished the season with no more than 1 turnover-worth play in any game, it’s hard to imagine Miami capitalizing on turnovers like it did against Texas A&M. 

It’s also difficult to envision Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr. having as much success on the ground against the Buckeyes as he did against the Aggies. For reference, Fletcher averaged just over 10 yards per carry and accounted for 172 of Miami’s 278 total yards. He attacked the weakness of Texas A&M’s defense (104th in PPA per rush this season) I mentioned in my Miami-Texas A&M preview, which ultimately was the reason – along with Reed’s turnover propensity – we played Miami plus the points. This time around, Fletcher and Miami will face an Ohio State run defense that is 5th in rush yards allowed per game and 6th in yards per attempt this season, not to mention being 1st nationally in scoring and total defense. Moreover, the Buckeyes are 10th in PPA per rush and 18th in standard downs PPA allowed since Week 9, so they are in great form coming into this game. Without a reliable run game, more pressure will be thrust onto Carson Beck’s shoulders, which isn’t very settling for Miami given Beck’s hit-or-miss play against above-average defenses.

On the other side of the ball, Miami grades very well. The Hurricanes are top-12 in yards per play, scoring, and total defense, but they showed some deficiencies against capable offenses like Louisville and Texas A&M. Ohio State has the best offense of any that Miami has seen to this point, even if the Buckeyes are outside the top 15 in scoring and total offense due to their slow pace of play. Since Week 9, the Bucks are top-10 in PPA per play, success rate, and points scored per quality drive, and they are notably good on passing downs, which has been an area of weakness for Miami’s defense. 

Miami has star power similar to that of Ohio State, but for my money, the Buckeyes are the more complete team with a more reliable head coach, and they are better than the Hurricanes in almost every aspect on both sides of the ball. Look for OSU to suffocate Miami in a win and cover to advance to the semifinals. 

Miami vs Ohio State prediction: Buckeyes -9 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -9.5.

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Compared to the top of the board, Alabama being listed longer than +1000 feels like an appropriate value for how high its ceiling can be. Like Texas, Ohio State, and Georgia, the Crimson Tide will break in a new starting quarterback this season. Some questioned who the new starter will be throughout the offseason, but it has always felt like Ty Simpson’s job to lose. Recently acquired offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb even said after the spring game that if he had to pick a starter then, it would have been Simpson. Yet, as of July 31, Grubb and Kalen DeBoer have not officially named their starting quarterback.

Presumably, redshirt sophomore Austin Mack and 5-star freshman and top-3 overall recruit Keelon Russell are pushing Simpson for the starting role, but the refusal to officially name a starter may be a bit of “coachspeak” in a sense, to ensure Simpson keeps his foot down in practice and doesn’t get complacent. He has shown flashes of above-average accuracy and underrated athleticism in his limited sample size, and maybe most importantly, command of the offense – albeit in blowout games in which the result was all but determined.

If he can consistently provide highly accurate throws in more competitive settings, his upside certainly could be close to, if not higher than, Jalen Milroe’s in DeBoer’s offense. He doesn’t have to be as good a runner as Milroe if he’s a more reliable passer downfield. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a big “if,” but this bet on Alabama isn’t so much about the quarterback position as it is everything else surrounding it.

On paper, this Crimson Tide roster is effectively loaded. Not only did DeBoer bring in a top-3 recruiting class, but he paired it with a top-25 transfer portal class and an already top-30 roster in overall returning production. While it is just barely inside the top 60 in returning offensive production, much of that has to do with the departures of Milroe and Justice Haynes (transferred to Michigan), who accounted for 27 of the team’s 41 rushing touchdowns. Trust me, there is still plenty to like about what returns to Tuscaloosa this year.

The Tide should have one of the better offensive lines in the country with anchors Kadyn Proctor and Parker Brailsford returning at LT and C, respectively – 2 of the SEC’s best 35 pass blockers a year ago. They also maintained Jaeden Roberts on the interior, one of Alabama’s better run blockers. Speaking of the run game, Jam Miller is back and should get a fair share of the nearly 250 vacant carries Milroe and Haynes left, but Richard Young and Daniell Hill were both top 10 backs in their respective recruiting classes and certainly should have ample opportunities to prove their worth.

Out wide, Alabama’s receiver group is spearheaded by Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard’s returns after collectively putting up over 1,600 yards with 13 total touchdowns in 2024. This year, the receiver group could turn into somewhat of a 3-headed monster reminiscent of DeBoer’s Washington team just a couple of years ago, with the addition of Miami transfer Isaiah Horton, a redshirt junior who tallied over 600 yards with 5 touchdowns for the Hurricanes last season.

On the other side of the ball, Alabama should be very dangerous. The Tide are top 15 in returning defensive talent, bringing back nearly 70% of production from a unit that was top 10 in PPA and success rate allowed in 2024. In fact, as many as 13 players with at least 200 snaps were retained by DeBoer. Players like Tim Smith, Jihaad Campbell and Malachi Moore will certainly be missed, but LT Overton, Tim Keenan III, Justin Jefferson, Bray Hubbard and Deontae Lawson were among the best defenders in the SEC last season, and provide the Tide with a solid defensive floor going into this year, especially with a year in defensive coordinator Kane Wommack’s system under their belts.

There are a few aspects of Alabama’s schedule that are conducive to the Tide playing to their ceiling this year. First, they will not have to play on the road in back-to-back weeks at any point. This is always the first thing I look for in a schedule. Second, the Tide have bye weeks before their trip to Georgia and their home game against LSU, arguably their 2 biggest games of the season. Third, 4 of Alabama’s final 6 games are at home, with the only 2 road trips being to South Carolina and in-state rival Auburn — each of which presents its own unique set of challenges.

Early-season showdowns against non-conference foes like Florida State and Wisconsin are fun on paper and were thought to be more of a challenge when they were scheduled, but Alabama is a few tiers above the present-day versions of those programs. All things considered, assuming Simpson is at the very least an average SEC quarterback, the combination of Alabama’s roster and schedule presents a floor that feels like 8-4 at worst with a ceiling as high as 11-1 or 12-0. Coach DeBoer has already been to the national championship with a program that has a fraction of the football resources Alabama has, so I trust that he is not only capable of leading a roster of this talent level to the title game, but winning it in the process.