Sam Avellone

This game figures to be anchored by what are a couple of tenacious defenses. Since Week 9, both Alabama and Oklahoma are top-30 in PPA per play, success rate and points per opportunity allowed, and neither offense has been inspiring enough to crack those defensive efficiency numbers. The Sooners are outside the top 120 in both PPA per play and success rate since the end of October, and they’ve scored just 2.72 points per trip across the opposing 40-yard line in that span – good for just 115th. Alabama hasn’t been much better, as the Tide are 88th in PPA per play and 77th in success rate since Week 9 – though they have been a bit more efficient in scoring opportunities. 

Given the similar defensive strengths and offensive shortcomings to end the season, I’m expecting a low-scoring, smashmouth football game in Norman this Friday. When these teams met in Tuscaloosa, only 44 points were scored, but 7 of those points came from an Oklahoma pick-6 and Alabama gifted another 10 points to the Sooners by way of 2 fumbles close to the red zone. I don’t see that happening again here. For what it’s worth, unders are 10-2 in Oklahoma games and 6-1 in its home games, while they are 3-1 in Alabama’s road SEC games. 

Alabama vs. Oklahoma prediction: Under 41 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 40.

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The Washington State Cougars will hit the road for a matchup against a previous conference foe in the USC Trojans on Sunday evening. These teams are on much different trajectories coming into this game, as the Cougars are 3-7 SU and have dropped 4 games in a row. Meanwhile, the Trojans are riding high at 9-1, though an 84-76 loss to the Wazzu’s in-state rival Washington last Saturday could still be fresh on the minds of Eric Musselman’s squad. USC G Rodney Rice’s status remains in question, as he has not suited up in the last 4 games, while F Amarion Dickerson is out with a hip injury. 

Washington State’s resume is not pretty, nor are its efficiency numbers – particularly on the defensive side. The Cougars are 272nd in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency and 333rd in opposing effective field goal percentage. Opponents have connected on nearly 39% of three-point shots against the Cougars, which is a bit unlucky and feels like a number due for some regression. Meanwhile, Wazzu has a trio of capable shooters that connect on at least 38% of perimeter attempts, and that doesn’t include Rihards Vavers – who is due for some regression back to the mean himself considering he’s shooting close to 10% below his career average thus far. 

If there are 2 areas in which Wazzu excels, it’s on the defensive glass and from the free throw line. The Cougars are capable of limiting USC’s second chance opportunities, and they will make the Trojans pay from the charity stripe if they defend too aggressively. Mix in the three-point variance and there’s certainly a path for what may be a desperate Wazzu team with slightly extra rest and preparation to stay within the number. 

Washington State vs USC prediction: Washington State Cougars +14.2 (-102) available at FanDuel at the time of publishing. Playable to +13. 

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Compared to the top of the board, Alabama being listed longer than +1000 feels like an appropriate value for how high its ceiling can be. Like Texas, Ohio State, and Georgia, the Crimson Tide will break in a new starting quarterback this season. Some questioned who the new starter will be throughout the offseason, but it has always felt like Ty Simpson’s job to lose. Recently acquired offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb even said after the spring game that if he had to pick a starter then, it would have been Simpson. Yet, as of July 31, Grubb and Kalen DeBoer have not officially named their starting quarterback.

Presumably, redshirt sophomore Austin Mack and 5-star freshman and top-3 overall recruit Keelon Russell are pushing Simpson for the starting role, but the refusal to officially name a starter may be a bit of “coachspeak” in a sense, to ensure Simpson keeps his foot down in practice and doesn’t get complacent. He has shown flashes of above-average accuracy and underrated athleticism in his limited sample size, and maybe most importantly, command of the offense – albeit in blowout games in which the result was all but determined.

If he can consistently provide highly accurate throws in more competitive settings, his upside certainly could be close to, if not higher than, Jalen Milroe’s in DeBoer’s offense. He doesn’t have to be as good a runner as Milroe if he’s a more reliable passer downfield. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a big “if,” but this bet on Alabama isn’t so much about the quarterback position as it is everything else surrounding it.

On paper, this Crimson Tide roster is effectively loaded. Not only did DeBoer bring in a top-3 recruiting class, but he paired it with a top-25 transfer portal class and an already top-30 roster in overall returning production. While it is just barely inside the top 60 in returning offensive production, much of that has to do with the departures of Milroe and Justice Haynes (transferred to Michigan), who accounted for 27 of the team’s 41 rushing touchdowns. Trust me, there is still plenty to like about what returns to Tuscaloosa this year.

The Tide should have one of the better offensive lines in the country with anchors Kadyn Proctor and Parker Brailsford returning at LT and C, respectively – 2 of the SEC’s best 35 pass blockers a year ago. They also maintained Jaeden Roberts on the interior, one of Alabama’s better run blockers. Speaking of the run game, Jam Miller is back and should get a fair share of the nearly 250 vacant carries Milroe and Haynes left, but Richard Young and Daniell Hill were both top 10 backs in their respective recruiting classes and certainly should have ample opportunities to prove their worth.

Out wide, Alabama’s receiver group is spearheaded by Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard’s returns after collectively putting up over 1,600 yards with 13 total touchdowns in 2024. This year, the receiver group could turn into somewhat of a 3-headed monster reminiscent of DeBoer’s Washington team just a couple of years ago, with the addition of Miami transfer Isaiah Horton, a redshirt junior who tallied over 600 yards with 5 touchdowns for the Hurricanes last season.

On the other side of the ball, Alabama should be very dangerous. The Tide are top 15 in returning defensive talent, bringing back nearly 70% of production from a unit that was top 10 in PPA and success rate allowed in 2024. In fact, as many as 13 players with at least 200 snaps were retained by DeBoer. Players like Tim Smith, Jihaad Campbell and Malachi Moore will certainly be missed, but LT Overton, Tim Keenan III, Justin Jefferson, Bray Hubbard and Deontae Lawson were among the best defenders in the SEC last season, and provide the Tide with a solid defensive floor going into this year, especially with a year in defensive coordinator Kane Wommack’s system under their belts.

There are a few aspects of Alabama’s schedule that are conducive to the Tide playing to their ceiling this year. First, they will not have to play on the road in back-to-back weeks at any point. This is always the first thing I look for in a schedule. Second, the Tide have bye weeks before their trip to Georgia and their home game against LSU, arguably their 2 biggest games of the season. Third, 4 of Alabama’s final 6 games are at home, with the only 2 road trips being to South Carolina and in-state rival Auburn — each of which presents its own unique set of challenges.

Early-season showdowns against non-conference foes like Florida State and Wisconsin are fun on paper and were thought to be more of a challenge when they were scheduled, but Alabama is a few tiers above the present-day versions of those programs. All things considered, assuming Simpson is at the very least an average SEC quarterback, the combination of Alabama’s roster and schedule presents a floor that feels like 8-4 at worst with a ceiling as high as 11-1 or 12-0. Coach DeBoer has already been to the national championship with a program that has a fraction of the football resources Alabama has, so I trust that he is not only capable of leading a roster of this talent level to the title game, but winning it in the process.