The first game of the MLB postseason features an NL East grudge match between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves. The Braves won nine of the 13 regular-season games between these two clubs, and they come into this series playing much better baseball. In fact, the Phillies limped into the playoffs, and they darn near missed it on the final day. Luis Arraez is down with an ankle injury at the moment, and the Philadelphia offense has been among the worst in baseball during the final month of the season. It is hard to trust them to score, but they can pitch with anybody. That has me looking at the game total under 7.
Chris Sale takes the mound for the Braves. He has been nails all year, as usual, and he has been especially effective against the Phillies. The best hitters in the Philly lineup are lefties, and Sale just locks them up every time. He is likely to do it again, probably for 6 or 7 innings before handing things over to one of baseball’s top 5 bullpens. On the other side, the Phillies will go with a piggyback situation. Jesus Luzardo will start, but he has spent the last several weeks on the IL, so we would assume he will be limited. He will then be followed by Andrew Painter. Painter is a bit of a worry, but the honest assessment is that he has had a really strong second half after getting demoted in the first half. Painter held the Braves to 1 run over 5 innings a couple of weeks ago.
For the Phillies to have any chance in this series, their pitching has to be on point, and they will have to suppress the Braves’ bats. The Philadelphia offense is a significant concern right now, and with the platoon disadvantage working against them on Tuesday, they will likely struggle to score. Most postseason games see the run totals drop significantly, and I think this is going to be one of those spots. The Braves ought to win it, but look for a low-scoring game, whatever happens.
Phillies vs Braves Game 1 Prediction: Under 7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that total to -120.
