The narrative surrounding this game is obvious. Arizona needs to win to keep its dwindling postseason hopes alive, while Colorado has already lost 100 games and is simply playing out the string. That's lovely stuff. If you want to lay the run with Arizona and invest in that storyline, be my guest. What jumps off the page to me is the Over market.
Some outfits are requiring bettors to lay substantial juice to back Over 11, while elsewhere we're being offered the exact same number at +110. That's the opportunity. Before we even handicap the baseball game, we're getting a plus-money position on a total that other bookmakers are already taxing heavily. CLV enthusiasts will know this trick and it personifies the closing line value philosophy. By merit of this principle alone, taking the Over at +110 is justified. But the question remains: can we get to 12 runs? Yes, we can. Just look at the pitching.
Merrill Kelly and Mason Adams both carry ERAs around 5.00, and neither owns a winning record. Kelly's 1.47 WHIP and Adams' 1.65 WHIP are particularly frightening when they're pitching at Coors Field. Traffic in Denver can turn into crooked numbers with one swing of the bat. The starters alone could carry us most of the way. Then comes Colorado's bullpen, carrying a 4.84 ERA and 1.47 WHIP which adds to the math, while the Coors Field environment can create problems for Arizona's relievers just as easily, even if they are better equipped. In summation, we're getting vulnerable starters; we're getting hittable relief pitching; and we're getting this at Coors Field. Most importantly, we're getting Over 11 at +110 while other shops are charging lumber for the same bet. That's value. You know what to do next.
Diamondbacks vs Rockies prediction: Over 11 (+110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +105.
