After posting a record of 84-78, the Chicago White Sox are back in the postseason for the first time since 2021. It's been half a decade of losing since then, but the 2026 season brought new optimism to the South Side of Chicago. The White Sox aren't flashy, but they do a lot of things well. Throughout the course of the regular season, Chicago ranked fifth in total runs scored (776), thanks in large part to their ability to hit the long ball. The White Sox blasted 211 homers in the regular season, which was the 5th-most in all of baseball. But their opponent, the Houston Astros, were even better. Houston led MLB with 226 home runs this season, which included 104 long balls in 81 games at Daikin Park. Given both teams' ability to leave the yard, this could turn into a high-scoring affair.
The pitching matchup in Tuesday's Game 1 could also lead to this one going over the listed total. Chicago rookie Hagen Smith will be making just his second career start after making 17 of his 18 appearances this season out of the bullpen. In an unfamiliar role in a high-stakes environment, it's natural to expect some levels of discomfort. Houston will send A.J. Blubaugh to the mound, and this will be his first start of 2026 after making 64 appearances out of the bullpen in the regular season. While both managers will likely shuffle through plenty of arms, the new roles for each starter could lead to an advantage for the offenses.
It's also worth noting that both managers have just 2 total games of playoff managerial experience between them, with both coming for Joe Espada back in 2024. Chicago's Will Venable is making his postseason debut as a manager. That inexperience on both sides could lead to some issues when managing the bullpen. Both lineups should be able to plate enough runs to take this one over the listed total.
White Sox vs Astros Game 1 prediction: Over 8.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
