I'll tell you first-hand that I'm a big fan of Michael King, and after yesterday's 3-2 rock fight, it's easy to feel reluctant to back Milwaukee at margin in a game where King and the San Diego bullpen can shine again. The problem is who the Friars are up against. When you think Milwaukee pitching, the first name that comes to mind is Jacob Misiorowski. The Miz boasts other-worldly numbers and deservedly commands most of the attention, but Logan Henderson is called the co-ace for a reason. That's who is manning the hill in Game 2, and that's why I am keen here.
Henderson quietly finished 11-3 with a 2.47 ERA and 0.84 WHIP, striking out 110 batters in 98.1 innings while issuing only 19 walks. He misses bats, doesn't hand out free passes, and when Milwaukee needs length, he's capable of providing it. That's exactly the weapon I want against San Diego. The Friars unquestionably found their feet offensively down the backstretch, and King combined with that excellent Padres bullpen can make life extremely difficult for the Brew Crew. I'm not dismissing any of that. I'm betting that Henderson can give the Brewers an avenue to win and do so by more than a run. If he establishes himself early, disrupts San Diego's rhythm and brings back even a glimpse of the inconsistent Spring Friars offense, Milwaukee has an opportunity to find a seam against King. While he was superb against the Cubs in a one-hit masterpiece, King still allows considerably more traffic and has given up nearly an extra earned run on average over the regular season.
King was also a 12-10 pitcher, so decisions can also go against him. The sample size of Henderson versus King overall would suggest that the Brewers have a huge edge here where they can create separation by virtue of traffic, and that can be influential in the outcome. So, unless King throws another gem, Milwaukee has a chance to create separation. I don't see how the Friars do so against Henderson, and to me, that is the difference maker. King may keep this competitive for a while, but Henderson gives Milwaukee every opportunity to control the game until its offense finds the breakthrough. Forget the juice on the moneyline, give me the Brew Crew on the run line instead.
Padres vs Brewers prediction: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+163) available at time of publishing. Playable to +150.
