It is Game 1 of the World Series, and we have the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the Tampa Bay Rays. This matchup has lots of wrinkles to it. These are the two best teams from their respective leagues, and they have been all season. We are also guaranteed a first-time World Series champion, as both teams have been to the Series but have never won it. On top of that, we have the looming lockout, and both teams are small market teams with small payrolls, making this matchup an absolute dream for the Players Association as they try to argue there is no need for a salary cap. There is plenty more to work through as we break down this game, but these teams seem quite even to me, so I love the huge plus-money payout on the visiting Rays. I’ll take the Rays on the Money Line in Game 1.
On the mound, we have Jacob Misiorowski for sure, and most likely Drew Rasmussen (not yet confirmed as of the time of this writing, but lined up to pitch on regular rest). Both teams have taken a very similar approach to pitching, and both have utilized their bullpens to near perfection. This is the modern approach to the playoffs—don’t let starters go very long, use your high-leverage guys early, and use some of your best starters in short relief on what would normally be their bullpen days. For the Miz, it has been a pair of 4-inning starts in the playoffs, both highly effective, even if brief. The Milwaukee bullpen behind him has been virtually untouchable. Rasmussen has been a rare exception to the rest of the pitching pattern, as he has gone, 6, 7, and 8 innings in his 3 starts, and he has been virtually untouchable too, allowing only 2 runs across those 21 innings of work.
On the offensive side, these teams are nearly mirror images. Both have a couple stars in the lineup—guys like Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminero, Jackson Chourio, and William Contreras. But both teams win with a small-ball approach, They have lots of blazing fast guys who put pressure on the defense, they steal bases, and they take extra bases where they can. Both teams play hard defense, and they are not afraid to lay down a key bunt. Both teams put the ball in play, and the Rays even led the league with the fewest strikeouts.
Finding an edge in this game is tough, but I do like that the Rays have played more recently, as the longer layoff usually hurts teams. Both teams have their best pitchers on full rest, and there is no real edge there. In a toss-up game like this, let’s take the plus money with the team who has played more recently. Give me the Rays.
Rays vs Brewers Prediction: Rays ML (+135) available at the time of publishing. Playable to +115.
