It is a treat for baseball fans when the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees clash, and this is especially true during postseason play. New York took Game 1 in dominant fashion Tuesday after Payton Tolle was pulled from the game in the fifth inning. Boston pulled Tolle in favor of Erik Miller, who promptly allowed a home run to Ben Rice. New York took things from there, scoring two more runs in the seventh inning and five runs in the eighth. New York's pitching staff was dominant behind an elite outing from Cam Schlittler.
Game 2 presents another awesome starting pitching matchup with Sonny Gray for Boston and Max Fried for New York. Both pitchers had terrific regular seasons, and I would expect another low-scoring start to this game. My best bet on Tuesday’s slate was the under 3.5 through five innings of play and I lean that way again Wednesday with a more playable price. Gray had a 2.72 ERA during the regular season, but his ERA was shadowed by a much larger 3.87 xERA. Sonny ranked just 43rd percentile in K%, 39th percentile in xBA and middle of the pack in hard-hit rate allowed. While he is still a very good starter, Fried is my preferred option in this spot.
Fried only made 20 starts during the regular season but was dominant during his time on the mound. The southpaw posted a 2.80 ERA and an even better 2.51 xERA that ranked in the 98th percentile. He recorded 104 Ks in 112.2 innings while maintaining elite batted ball metrics and plus command of the zone. Both pitchers have performed well against these opposing lineups already this season, but I do prefer backing the Yankees at current pricing.
Yankees vs Red Sox prediction: New York ML (-137) available at time of publishing. Playable to -145.
