The Tampa Bay Rays return home for Game 6 as they look to reach the World Series for the first time since 2020. Tampa Bay has performed well in this series against the Guardians, averaging 3.8 runs per game while batting .245 with a 3.07 team ERA. Cleveland is averaging three runs per game while batting .238 with a 2.86 team ERA. Freddy Peralta will start things off for Tampa Bay and he has been outstanding this postseason, going 1-0 with a 0.79 ERA across three appearances. He has also been dominant down the stretch, posting a 6-2 record with a 2.00 ERA over his last 12 starts. Peralta has been particularly effective at home, going 3-0 with a 0.99 ERA in his last five starts at the Trop.
Cleveland is expected to start things off by handing the ball to Shawn Armstrong, who has been lights out this postseason, pitching 7.2 scoreless innings. The one concerning thing about Armstrong starting things off is that he's been utilized in the last two games, which means the Guardians aren't expecting a lot out of him. That brings up the question if the Guardians are going to look to piece things together with their bullpen, or possibly hand the ball off to Tanner Bibee who hasn't pitched since October 8th. Bibee allowed two runs while recording just one out against the White Sox. However, he has also struggled against Tampa Bay this season, going 0-2 with a 3.27 ERA. With the Guardians heavily relying on their bullpen, I expect fatigue to be a factor. Peralta’s recent form and Tampa Bay’s home-field advantage give the Rays the edge. I expect Tampa Bay’s offense to do enough against Cleveland’s pitching staff to secure the win.
Guardians vs Rays prediction: Tampa Bay ML (-150) available at time of publishing. Playable to -165.
