This is a scheduling spot more than anything else and I'm perfectly happy to back the fresher outfit in what should be a competitive basketball game. Dallas is coming into this contest on the second leg of a back-to-back, having played three games in four nights. Granted, the Mavericks are at home, which eliminates the travel component, but that doesn't suddenly erase the physical demands of such a congested schedule. Indiana, meanwhile, is operating on normal rest. That's significant.
The Pacers don't necessarily need to be the superior basketball team on paper to take advantage of this situation. They simply need to remain competitive long enough for Dallas' scheduling disadvantage to become a factor, particularly in the latter stages of the contest. And that's where the number gets interesting. We're looking at a relatively short spread (-3.5), suggesting the market anticipates a closely contested affair. If that's the case, why bother taking the points when we can back the fresher team to win straight up? Dallas might have the home-court advantage, but Indiana has the rest advantage, and that could prove decisive when possessions become increasingly important down the stretch. In a matchup where the margins appear thin, I'm willing to trust the team with fresher legs. Pacers outright.
Pacers vs Mavericks prediction: Indiana ML (+135) available at time of publishing. Playable to +125.
