We've seen a combined four games between these two teams and the totals have been set at 220, 224, 238 and 226 respectively. Three of them landed under Saturday's number. San Antonio has lost its opening two contests, scoring 104 and 110 points while shooting under thirty percent from beyond the arc. The lone over was Dallas at Houston on Wednesday, and 128 of those 238 points belonged to the Rockets, with the Mavericks managing just 38 in the first half. In the win at Indiana the Mavs led 77-43 at the break with 17 points in 17 minutes from Cooper Flagg before Aaron Nesmith's flagrant foul ended his night. That one still finished at 226.
Flagg is out tonight with the shoulder. Kyrie Irving should play on the second night of a back-to-back, but his minutes will be restricted, and he will see young, physical guards in Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper. That leaves Dallas with P.J. Washington, Max Christie, Naji Marshall and Marcus Sasser carrying the scoring. Half of their roster is a question mark. I've got my eyes on a Kyrie under points total as well.
The Spurs come in looking to avoid an 0-3 start, and they should win this with margin. The Mavericks are on their third game in four nights after a flight home from Indianapolis. Neither team will be pushing the pace. Even if San Antonio shoots the ball better, I can't see this Dallas group eclipsing 100 points. This line is already dropping, so I'll grab the under at the current number.
Spurs vs Mavericks prediction: Under 230.5 (-104) available at time of publishing. Playable to 229.5.
