Opening night in Houston, and the Rockets walk in at full strength for the first time in the Durant era. Last season ended with a first-round exit to a Lakers team missing Luka Doncic, after Houston went down 0-3 and lost in six. Fred VanVleet returns after missing all of last year with a torn ACL, Steven Adams is back from January ankle surgery, and Marcus Smart and Bogdan Bogdanovic arrived in free agency. "We can now hit the ground running as opposed to figuring it out on the fly," Udoka said this week.
Houston allowed the fourth-fewest points in the league last season, and its two home meetings with Dallas finished 110-102 and 111-107. Both under 220. The offense was a different story, below average in half-court efficiency and in isolation scoring with KD, one of the greatest iso players of all time, on the floor for 78 regular-season games. A starting point guard should fix some of that. But I don't expect a big jump on night one.
Dallas enters year two post-Luka with a complete front-office overhaul. Masai Ujiri replaced the loathed Nico Harrison as president in May, brought in Mike Schmitz as GM, and handed Jason Kidd's job to first-time NBA head coach Dusty May, fresh off a national title at Michigan. Zaccharie Risacher joins Irving and Flagg to give Dallas three former No. 1 overall picks, and Morez Johnson Jr., the No. 9 pick and May's forward at Michigan, was limited by shin splints throughout camp. As of Tuesday, May would not name his starting five.
All eyes will be on Irving and VanVleet. However, it has been a combined 1,132 days since their last meaningful games, and I do not expect them to carry a heavy share of the offense this early. This one smells like rust. Yes, Houston dropped 135 on this Dallas defense in China. Yes, Dallas answered with 132 two days later. Preseason totals lie. The last two times these teams met in a regular-season game in Houston, they combined for 212 and 218. I like the under.
Mavericks vs Rockets prediction: Under 230.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to 229.5.
