Houston has gotten clipped a couple of times recently, most notably by Phoenix, and that hardly inspires confidence. Nevertheless, I'm willing to look past those setbacks because the Rockets possess the defensive qualities to make life particularly uncomfortable for Denver. Houston has lost just once at home this season and its defensive reliability is difficult to overlook. Minnesota's 117 points last Wednesday represent the most anyone has managed against the Rockets, who have held four opponents to 102 points or fewer. That's the foundation of why I love Houston here.
Denver loves to generate offense through ball movement, facilitation, creating good looks, and efficiency, but what happens when those opportunities disappear and the Nuggets are forced to manufacture possessions through physicality and rebounding? That's where Houston has a considerable advantage. The Rockets lead the league on the glass in defensive rebounding, while Denver ranks just 21st in offensive rebounding at 42.8 per game. Houston also does an excellent job shutting down the perimeter and put this all together, they can disrupt Denver's offensive rhythm. On their own court, I like those prospects. Denver might have Jokic and Murray, but Houston has physicality, defensive discipline and home-court advantage to dictate how this basketball game is played. And if they need offense, there is a man called KD that can help with that too. But it's Houston defense that I really like here, in a spot where they can munch. If the Rockets control the boards and take away Denver's preferred scoring opportunities, the Nuggets could find themselves in an awfully uncomfortable position. That's my take here.
Nuggets vs Rockets prediction: Houston -4.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -5.
