Pat Riley and Miami can breathe after a winless first week of the season. The Heat failed to score more than 111 points in their first four games, which included a 25-point loss to the Wolves and a 17-point loss to the Pistons at home. Maybe we can throw that away now? In consecutive wins, they put up 129 at Atlanta and 145 in a rout of the Pacers. Tonight that offense opens a five-game road trip out west against a Lakers team on the second night of a back-to-back. Miami has been off since Friday.
In Friday's 20-point win over the Pacers in the NBA Cup opener, Giannis had his second triple-double, Bam made 11 of his 14 shots, and Klay Thompson hit seven threes on his way to a nostalgic 25-point performance. Miami is playing at the third-fastest pace in the league. The shots have started to fall.
The Lakers are 19th in defensive efficiency and give up 115 a game, and the home numbers are worse. Portland scored 136 at Crypto.com Arena and Toronto put up 125 last night. There is some reason to believe they will improve on that side of the ball throughout the season, but I don't expect that to change on the second night of a back-to-back, let alone against a Heat team playing with a ton of confidence.
Doncic sat the second night at the Clippers last week, and after last night's 35 minutes against the Raptors, he is one to watch on this afternoon's injury report. Without him, the Lakers scored 103 in a game that went 190, so the game total needs him to suit up. Miami's team total does not. The Heat's last four games as an underdog have gone over. With that in mind, I like the Heat to exceed their team total.
Heat vs Lakers prediction: Heat team total over 117.5 (-122) available at time of publishing. Playable to 118.5 (-110).
