The Mavericks take on the Timberwolves in their first game of a three-game road trip following a 3-0 home-stand. Both teams have momentum, as Dallas has won three straight and Minnesota four in a row. Including Thursday night, the Wolves will play their next seven games at Target Center. The under went 4-0 when these teams met last season, averaging 222.5 total points. Minnesota swept the series, but this is a different matchup with different rosters and Anthony Edwards still out. Through three weeks of the season, the Wolves rank first in defensive efficiency.
Minnesota's offensive spacing has been every coach's dream. Their lengthy frontcourt is setting screens near half court, leaving guys wide open in the middle of the floor. The Wolves are also shooting at a clip I do not believe they can sustain. Through 11 games, they rank fifth in field-goal percentage at 47.4% and can thank new faces like Jonathan Kuminga, who is shooting a career-high 40.8% from three. That will inevitably come down. Dallas put up 125 on Monday behind 43 from Cooper Flagg and 35 from Kyrie Irving, which is why this total is as high as it is. But the total has stayed under in eight of the Mavs' 11 games, and they rank ninth in defensive efficiency. Prior to Monday's win over the Pacers, four straight went under. The number is set a touch too high. I like the under.
Mavericks vs Timberwolves prediction: Under 227.5 (-117) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
