San Antonio has won five straight after losing its first two games of the season, including a 16-point win in Dallas. It is worth putting a small asterisk next to those wins, as four of the five came against teams that missed last year's playoffs. In the Spurs' October 24 win over the Mavs, Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving did not play and Sergio de Larrea led the team with 21. Both Flagg and Irving are set to go Wednesday. Dallas had a great week at home, taking out the Thunder and Rockets, holding two of the best teams in the West to 96 and 111. Irving flashed with 35 points and five threes against the Rockets and Flagg poured in 33.
Without Irving, the Mavericks scored 106 against the Spurs and 100 against the Kings on Monday. Dallas has lost five straight in this series by 12 or more, and San Antonio has won its last three games at home by 27, 10 and 22 points. The efficiency gap between these teams projects about an eight-point Spurs home win, and San Antonio has covered big numbers all week against teams that could not score. Dallas with Flagg and Irving can. San Antonio is 3-4 ATS and Dallas has covered its last three games as an underdog. I believe the trends continue and would not be shocked if the Mavs won outright. Give me the points.
Mavericks vs Spurs prediction: Mavericks +12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +11.5 (-110).
