Washington might be a considerably different outfit from the one we've grown accustomed to seeing in recent years, but I'm not entirely convinced the market hasn't gotten a little carried away with the Wizards' transformation. At the end of the day, I'm taking the more proven commodity. Atlanta is a team I know what to expect from, and while the Hawks haven't exactly set the world alight, there's something to be said for backing an established outfit against a Washington team whose early-season improvement is generating plenty of enthusiasm. The Wizards are playing at home in the nation's capital, and Atlanta's injury concerns, particularly the ankle injury to Jalen Johnson, only enhance Washington's appeal. But that's precisely where the opportunity lies.
The Hawks managed to eke out a win against Indiana despite the Johnson nick and they have won the last three meetings between these Southeast Division rivals, giving Atlanta a psychological edge that shouldn't be entirely dismissed. And while losing to New Orleans on Halloween is a bad look, this is a team that knocked off Cleveland and went toe-to-toe with Houston in a back-to-back. None of that can be understated. And while Washington might have improved, that doesn't automatically make the Wizards worthy of being chalk here. Even if it's in The District.
Let's consider the price. We're looking at a game the market has effectively priced as a coin flip, yet Atlanta is available at +103 outright to win. Why wouldn't I take the better-established outfit at the better price? Washington's improvement is undeniable, but improvement and superiority aren't necessarily the same thing. In a closely matched divisional contest, I'll trust the team with the stronger pedigree and recent head-to-head success. Give me the Birds.
Hawks vs Wizards prediction: Atlanta +103 (ML) available at time of writing. Playable to the number.
