Keith
MLB
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Pool play is officially over and the quarterfinals have begun in the World Baseball Classic. Cuba and Japan have already punched their ticket to the semi-finals, and Puerto Rico and Mexico face off tonight to decide who will be the third team into the semis. Tomorrow concludes the quarterfinals with the United States taking on Venezuela, but before we can get there, tonight’s game is well worth watching. I’m 5-2 in the tournament so far, and here is my World Baseball Classic best bet for today.
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Puerto Rico vs Mexico predictions World Baseball Classic 2023: First 5 innings under 4 runs (-115)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Tonight’s quarterfinal matchup brings the lowest game total so far at the World Baseball Classic, and it’s well-deserved. For this must-win game, Puerto Rico will start Marcus Stroman and he will be countered by Mexico’s Julio Urias. Both starters had solid debuts for their respective teams and only had one or two mistakes that came back to bite them. Stroman went 4.2 innings and allowed 2 hits and a solo shot against Nicaragua in Puerto Rico’s first game, and to no surprise, 7 of the 9 outs were on the ground.
The Cubs’ ace has one of the highest ground-ball rates among starting pitchers in the MLB. In 2022, 52% of balls put in play against him were on the ground. But his career ground-ball rate sits at 58%, which is dramatically higher than the MLB average of 44.9%. The Mexico lineup should see a healthy portion of sinkers and sliders because those two pitches accounted for 66.5% of pitches Stroman threw in 2022. Ground balls are the best friend to an under since they lower the chance of extra-base hits.
Urias was dominant in his Mexico debut until the 5th inning. Through 4 innings, he had a perfect game along with 6 strikeouts and was making the Colombian lineup look like they didn’t deserve to be on the same field. But the 5th inning rolled around and it began with a double, double and home run. Those were the only hits and runs that Urias allowed in his outing as he sat the next three guys down after the home run. The Dodgers ace finished with just 62 pitches in 5 innings which ended his night since the pitch count was 65 in pool play, but with a new round brings new rules.
The pitch count has been increased to 80 pitches in the quarterfinals. That means if Stroman or Urias are dealing, they will stay out there. But since this is a win-or-go-home game, neither pitcher will have too long of a leash if they start to get into trouble. Both situations benefit the under, as runs should be at a premium tonight. I’ll eliminate the worry of the bullpens and the possibility of late-inning magic and take the first half under at 4 runs.
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