On paper, from both a viewership and a betting perspective, this is one of my favorite Sunday slates of the young MLB season. When scanning the board last night there were several spots of interest, and I was happy to see pricing stay at playable levels this morning. Let’s dive in and discuss my 3 favorite bets for Sunday’s slate of action!
MLB Best Bet: Philadelphia Phillies ML over Miami Marlins (-143)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -155 odds.
The first bet I made on Sunday’s slate of MLB games was Phillies ML against the Marlins. Philadelphia enters Sunday just 13-20 on the season, but they have won 5 of their last 7 games and are looking for a series win against a divisional opponent. Miami just took a series from the Dodgers and would love another series win today to get back to .500.
I think Philadelphia holds a clear starting pitching edge on Sunday. Jesus Luzardo enters play with a 5.50 ERA through his first 6 outings, spanning a combined 34.1 innings. Luzardo has been extremely unlucky this season, as his underlying metrics suggest he has been borderline dominant. His 3.26 xERA and 2.77 FIP are the product of a 28.3% strikeout rate and exceptional batted ball metrics. Currently Luzardo is allowing a .352 BABIP and stranding just 56.4% of base runners. Those are numbers that will surely regress to the mean in his favor.
Chris Paddack is scheduled for his 7th appearance of the season for Miami in this matchup. Paddack is someone I have bet against consistently for the last 2 seasons, and it has paid off given his poor results. Through 28 innings as a Marlin, Paddack has posted a 6.10 ERA. His 3.77 xERA and 4.47 FIP are better than that mark, but his low strikeout rate and high hard-hit rate are a worrisome combination. Paddack has pitched 4.2 innings or fewer in 5 of 6 appearances, and I don’t expect a strong start from him today.
MLB Best Bet: Cleveland Guardians ML over The Athletics (-120)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130 odds.
Happy Parker Messick day! For those that have been following along with my writeups, I am a big fan of Parker Messick. The Guardians’ southpaw hurler has headlined this starting rotation and helped propel the team into 1st place in the division. Cleveland is 5-1 in Messick’s 6 starts so far with the starter posting a 1.73 ERA in 36.1 innings of work. He has served as a workhorse with 3 quality starts including 8 innings of 2-run ball against Baltimore. His profile is exactly what I look for when betting on a pitcher, as he is able to dominate in several capacities. Messick is lethal in the strikeout department with his 28.1% strikeout rate. His 95th percentile chase rate is a major reason for that strikeout success, and it also helps him generate weak contact. Messick ranks 95th percentile in hard-hit rate so far and the majority of that contact has been hit into the ground. The Athletics are 22nd in wOBA against lefties this season.
Aaron Civale is set to make his 7th start of the season for the Athletics on Sunday, and despite decent success to start the season he is not someone I am fond of backing. Civale is a serviceable 5th starter for a team, but not someone that should be priced this way against a top end arm. The right-hander has a 3.23 ERA through 30.2 innings of work, but his 4.58 xERA is a less desirable mark. Civale ranks just 3rd percentile in hard-hit rate this season and the issue for him is most of that contact has been in the air. He ranks just 10th percentile in ground ball rate so far. He is also allowing a ton of contact with his whiff rate sitting just 22nd percentile. Civale doesn’t issue many free passes, but I think Cleveland can do their damage from within the zone in this matchup.
MLB Best Bet: Chase Burns (CIN) over 6.5 strikeouts recorded (-118)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130 odds.
My 3rd bet of the day is a player prop! I always try to include my favorite prop of the day for those who find more interest in props than sides or totals. There can also be larger edges in the prop market and one I am fond of is Chase Burns against the Pirates. Burns faced Pittsburgh in his season debut, striking out 7 Pirates in 5 innings of work. His workload was limited to 78 pitches in that outing but he has averaged 92 per start since. I think it is more likely we get 6 innings out of Burns on Sunday.
Burns is an elite talent. The right-hander was the 2nd overall draft pick in the 2024 draft and there is true ace-level potential in his right arm. Through 34 innings in 2026 Burns has recorded 39 strikeouts. He has 7 or more punch outs in 4 of his 6 starts including 9 against both Colorado and Texas. Not only did Burns find success against Pittsburgh in the first matchup this season, but it is a matchup on paper that he should thrive in once again.
Pittsburgh has produced back-to-back offensive explosions against this Reds pitching staff. To someone that watches the team every day it was not that surprising, as I bet their ML both games. Against pitch-to-contact arms like Brady Singer and Rhett Lowder they are a dangerous lineup. Against strikeout artists with high velocity and nasty stuff like Chase Burns, they could easily struggle. While I will be rooting for my Pirates on Sunday I find value in their propensity to strikeout. So far this season Pittsburgh has the 5th lowest contact rate in baseball. They have the 4th highest swinging strike rate overall and Burns is more than capable of generating whiffs. We also could benefit from a weakened lineup if Pittsburgh decides to allow some rest for a key bat.
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