Caleb Wilfinger
It’s been a long and eventful offseason, and the 2025 college football season is nearly upon us. The battle for a spot in the newly revamped 12-team College Football Playoff begins on August 23 and won’t stop until we crown a champion in January. Last season’s National Championship game saw Ohio State take down Notre Dame to claim its first championship in a decade. Who will reach the pinnacle of the sport in this updated playoff format this season? It’s almost time to find out.
With the offseason chaos in the rearview mirror, it’s time to delve into the futures market for each conference, and here we’re taking a look at the always entertaining American Athletic Conference. This is a league without a clear favorite at the top, which gives us a fairly deep bench for selecting a conference winner. Let’s look at the latest college football odds for the American, along with our NCAAF picks to win the AAC, which you can fade or follow at any of the best NCAAF betting sites this season.
Find out ALL of our college football futures predictions for the upcoming season by checking out our betting guide
AAC Championship odds
Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook and available at time of publishing.
- Tulane (+325)
- Navy (+400)
- UTSA (+480)
- South Florida (+480)
- Memphis (+550)
- Army (+1100)
- East Carolina (+1600)
- North Texas (+1700)
- Rice (+6000)
- UAB (+8000)
- FAU (+10000)
- Temple (+12500)
Don’t miss our NCAAF National Championship best bets for the upcoming season, including a +4000 longshot!
American contenders and American Conference predictions
Tulane (+325)
Tulane has been a constant in the AAC for some time, and head coach Jon Sumrall has followed in the legacy of Willie Fritz by taking Tulane to a 9-3 season last fall. However, while Tulane sits atop the odds board once again in this jumbled conference, I don’t have much confidence in the Green Wave to reach the same heights they did in years past. For starters, Sumrall’s group only returns 5 total starters from last season’s squad, and the offense is getting a complete overhaul following the exit of Darian Mensah and Makhi Hughes, along with a bevy of wide receivers and a few pieces on the offensive line. The most puzzling addition was the insertion of quarterback Jake Retzlaff post-spring following his dismissal from BYU, a move that suggests Tulane doesn’t have much confidence in its quarterback room.
As for the defense, it’s also a complete overhaul for defensive coordinator Greg Gasparato, who will also bring in 7 transfers to fill in the gaps left by the exodus following last season. That doesn’t bode well for a unit that was outside the top 50 nationally a season ago. Lastly, the schedule is deceptively tricky, with games against Northwestern, South Alabama, Duke and Ole Miss to open the campaign, to say nothing of games against Army, UTSA and Memphis down the road. I confidently bet Under 8.5 wins on Tulane earlier in the summer, and I’d still recommend that wager at this time.
Now read our expert’s Big Ten best bets if you want additional picks outside our Mountain West predictions
Navy (+400)
2024 was something of a dream season for Navy, as the Midshipmen finished with a 9-3 record while also tacking on a bowl win over Oklahoma to close out a magical year. And while the Drew Cronic offense will likely take something of a step back this season now that opponents have a full season of tape on it, this is still a team that returns its quarterback in Blake Horvath, along with a slew of key pieces on offense. As a result, that should give the Midshipmen a pretty high floor to work with, but I have significant questions about the Navy defense after it lost the majority of its production from a season ago. This is also an extremely backloaded schedule, so it wouldn’t shock me if the Midshipmen got off to a hot start, before dropping 3 of its final 5 games to go under their win total.
Read our full Big 12 preview and predictions, including a best bet at +800 odds!
UTSA (+450)
Of all the teams in the American, UTSA feels like the team that is most likely to take a significant step forward in 2025. The Roadrunners were one of the hottest teams in the nation to end last season and Jeff Traylor has historically been a terrific coach in November. The issue for UTSA in 2024 were the constant miscues and penalties in the first half of the campaign, and those should be cleaned up with a more concerted effort from this experienced offense to minimize those mistakes. UTSA returns 8 starters on that side of the ball, headlined by Owen McCown, who should be a contender for AAC Player of the Year in his junior season.
As for the defense, the Roadrunners struggled mightily in all areas in 2024, particularly against the pass. This lead to a complete overhaul of the defense, with zero starters returning from last years team and a myriad of transfers coming in from both the Power 4 and Group of 5 to bolster this brand new unit. There’s also the schedule, which gives Traylor’s side plenty of opportunities to string together victories in conference play, particularly at the start and end of their AAC slate. There are plenty of reasons to like the Roadrunners, and I’m not surprised in the slightest that their conference odds have shortened in recent weeks.
Don’t miss our expert’s Mountain West conference predictions
South Florida (+450)
South Florida has been a trendy team over the course of the offseason, and its not a surprise that the Bulls have taken money and their conference odds have shortened as a result. However, it’s hard for me to trust a team that has real injury concerns at the quarterback position. Byrum Brown is as talented as any quarterback at the Group of 5 level, but he also missed a bulk of the 2024 season due to nagging injuries. Given the fact that South Florida has a brutal nonconference schedule that will test its mettle before league play even starts, I have real questions about Brown’s ability to stay healthy and play at a high level once we hit the meat of the Bulls’ AAC schedule.
Even if Brown is able to stay healthy, this is still one of the toughest schedules in the conference, as South Florida has road games against North Texas, Memphis and Navy in a 5-week stretch, while also hosting UTSA in between the Memphis and Navy games. That’s about as brutal as it gets for this conference, and it gives me pause on whether the Bulls are true contenders in this league. Alex Golesh is a coach I really like from a long-term perspective, but I don’t have enough confidence in this team’s ability to survive their taxing nonconference slate and still manage to churn out wins during that crucial stretch of games from October 10 to November 15. Ultimately, a 7-5 season feels like a solid campaign for South Florida.
Memphis (+550)
Memphis has traditionally been the favorite in this league, but the Tigers are expected to take a significant step back in 2025. It all starts at the quarterback position, as longtime starter Seth Henigan has finally left the program, leaving former Nevada quarterback Brendan Lewis to transfer in to fill those big shoes. It remains to be seen if Lewis can improve enough to be a viable starting quarterback on a contender in this league, and the Tigers also have issues elsewhere, with Memphis bringing in 14 new transfers that are expected to get playing time in this offense. There is a runway early in the season for the Tigers to get rolling, but I still have my doubts about how effective they’ll be once the games get serious.
The Tigers are also welcoming in 20 new players on defense, making this unit a complete mystery as well. It’s hard to trust Memphis on defense regardless of the talent that the program brings in, as the Tigers have traditionally ranked outside the top 75-100 in defense in the Ryan Silverfield area. Lastly, the schedule is fairly easy up top, but much more difficult down the stretch, including games against South Florida, Tulane, East Carolina and Navy to close out the campaign. Memphis is a mystery team, so I can’t back them to win the league at these short odds.
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AAC football predictions and best bet: UTSA to win the conference (+480)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +400.
Outside of the Big 12, it could be argued that the American is the most wide open conference in America, as there are 8 teams by my count that could conceivably win this league. And while I’m pretty bullish on North Texas as a longshot option at 17-1 odds, UTSA has the head coach, experience under center and schedule that allows me to build a pretty strong case for why the Roadrunners should be the conference favorites. Given that I’m lower than the market on Tulane and Navy, and I have my questions about South Florida and Memphis down the stretch, the Roadrunners have emerged as the obvious choice for my AAC winner best bet. There’s a bit of room to run with the current price, so I’ll take UTSA while the number is still favorable.
Read our full Sun Belt preview and predictions, including a best bet at +300 odds!
