Sam Avellone
It has been a long and hot summer, but August is finally here, and you know what that means — football is back! As we inch closer to the college football regular season, Pickswise will have you covered with plenty of preseason content ranging from National Championship best bets and Heisman picks to win totals and conference previews – including the Group of 5 conferences. In this article, I will take you through the National Championship oddsboards and provide you with my CFB best bets and NCAAF predictions in that market. But before we get into the college football odds and NCAAF picks, let’s discuss the changes that were made to the 12-team College Football Playoff in the offseason.
College Football Playoff changes to note
Last season was the debut of the aforementioned 12-team College Football Playoff. From my point of view, it was a raging success, but not a perfect product specifically because of the way the bracket was seeded. Oregon, the top-seeded team in the Playoff, drew arguably the most difficult path to the National Championship, while Boise State and Arizona State catapulted up the bracket to earn a bye because they were the 3rd and 4th-highest ranked conference champions despite ranking 9th and 12th, respectively, in the final CFP poll.
Don’t get me wrong, Boise State and Arizona State were very good last year, relatively speaking, but were they deserving of a top-4 seed and first-round byes? Candidly, I don’t think so. Their ascent into the top 4 gave 5th and 6th-seeded Texas and Penn State extremely favorable paths to the semifinals on paper, exponentially more favorable than top-seeded Oregon. In my opinion, this format did not fairly award teams for their full body of work during the regular season.
The CFP seeding will look a bit different in 2025. Like last year, the 5 highest-seeded conference champions will automatically qualify for the playoff. However, unlike last year, simply winning your conference will not automatically put you into position to earn a top-4 seed and first-round bye. The 12-team bracket will now be seeded directly based on the final rankings of the CFP selection committee, meaning the 4 highest-ranked teams in the final CFP poll, regardless of conference champion status, will receive first-round byes. This felt like an inevitable change as soon as last year’s bracket was released, and it begs the question, why wasn’t this implemented from the get-go?
The new seeding format still awards the 5 best conference champions with a seat at the table, even if they are outside the top 12 in the final rankings, but more importantly, it maintains the value of the regular season by seeding the 12 teams based on their performance throughout the season as a whole. Now that we’ve got the logistics out of the way, let’s dig into the college football odds and NCAAF best bets to make ahead of the 2025 season.
Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day hoists the College Football Playoff trophy during the Ohio State Buckeyes National Championship celebration at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Jan. 26, 2025.
2025 College Football National Championship Odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
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- Texas Longhorns +550
- Ohio State Buckeyes +600
- Georgia Bulldogs +650
- Penn State Nittany Lions +750
- Alabama Crimson Tide +1100
- Clemson Tigers +1100
- Oregon Ducks +1100
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish +1500
- LSU Tigers +1700
- Michigan Wolverines +3500
- Florida Gators +3600
- Texas A&M Aggies +3700
- Miami Hurricanes +3800
- Ole Miss Rebels +4200
- Oklahoma Sooners +5000
- Auburn Tigers +5000
- USC Trojans +6500
- Tennessee Volunteers +7500
- Louisville Cardinals +7500
- South Carolina Gamecocks +8000
- Everyone else 100/1 or longer
If it feels like the race for the national title is wide open this year, that’s because it is, and the odds depict that. This is the first time since 2016 that the favorite to win the college football national championship is longer than +500, and just the 2nd time in the last 20+ years according to Sports Reference. It makes sense, as there are so many moving pieces at the top of the board ahead of the 2025 regular season. Not only are Texas, Ohio State, and Georgia breaking in new quarterbacks, but each of them is outside the top 80 in returning overall production. In fact, each of them will have less than 50% of their production back on offense.
I personally don’t see value in tying up my money for 6 months at these prices on teams dealing with this much roster shuffling, and that’s not to even mention the fact that Ohio State will have not 1, but 2 new coordinators. Of the 4 teams with odds shorter than 10/1, Penn State makes the most sense for a future bet, but do you really want to lock up your money on James Franklin for 6 months at this number? I don’t, but the addition of defensive coordinator Jim Knowles pairs like fine wine with an Andy Kotelnicki offense, especially when said offense has such a dynamic pair of running backs and a vastly improved wide receiver room. If Penn State wins it all, I will tip my cap in respect, but the price is just a bit rich for my taste at this moment in time. That leads me to my National Championship best bets…
2025 College Football National Championship Best Bet: Alabama Crimson Tide (+1100)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and available at time of publishing.
Compared to the top of the board, Alabama being listed longer than +1000 feels like an appropriate value for how high its ceiling can be. Like Texas, Ohio State, and Georgia, the Crimson Tide will break in a new starting quarterback this season. Some questioned who the new starter will be throughout the offseason, but it has always felt like Ty Simpson’s job to lose. Recently acquired offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb even said after the spring game that if he had to pick a starter then, it would have been Simpson. Yet, as of July 31, Grubb and Kalen DeBoer have not officially named their starting quarterback.
Presumably, redshirt sophomore Austin Mack and 5-star freshman and top-3 overall recruit Keelon Russell are pushing Simpson for the starting role, but the refusal to officially name a starter may be a bit of “coachspeak” in a sense, to ensure Simpson keeps his foot down in practice and doesn’t get complacent. He has shown flashes of above-average accuracy and underrated athleticism in his limited sample size, and maybe most importantly, command of the offense – albeit in blowout games in which the result was all but determined.
If he can consistently provide highly accurate throws in more competitive settings, his upside certainly could be close to, if not higher than, Jalen Milroe’s in DeBoer’s offense. He doesn’t have to be as good a runner as Milroe if he’s a more reliable passer downfield. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a big “if,” but this bet on Alabama isn’t so much about the quarterback position as it is everything else surrounding it.
On paper, this Crimson Tide roster is effectively loaded. Not only did DeBoer bring in a top-3 recruiting class, but he paired it with a top-25 transfer portal class and an already top-30 roster in overall returning production. While it is just barely inside the top 60 in returning offensive production, much of that has to do with the departures of Milroe and Justice Haynes (transferred to Michigan), who accounted for 27 of the team’s 41 rushing touchdowns. Trust me, there is still plenty to like about what returns to Tuscaloosa this year.
The Tide should have one of the better offensive lines in the country with anchors Kadyn Proctor and Parker Brailsford returning at LT and C, respectively – 2 of the SEC’s best 35 pass blockers a year ago. They also maintained Jaeden Roberts on the interior, one of Alabama’s better run blockers. Speaking of the run game, Jam Miller is back and should get a fair share of the nearly 250 vacant carries Milroe and Haynes left, but Richard Young and Daniell Hill were both top 10 backs in their respective recruiting classes and certainly should have ample opportunities to prove their worth.
Out wide, Alabama’s receiver group is spearheaded by Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard’s returns after collectively putting up over 1,600 yards with 13 total touchdowns in 2024. This year, the receiver group could turn into somewhat of a 3-headed monster reminiscent of DeBoer’s Washington team just a couple of years ago, with the addition of Miami transfer Isaiah Horton, a redshirt junior who tallied over 600 yards with 5 touchdowns for the Hurricanes last season.
On the other side of the ball, Alabama should be very dangerous. The Tide are top 15 in returning defensive talent, bringing back nearly 70% of production from a unit that was top 10 in PPA and success rate allowed in 2024. In fact, as many as 13 players with at least 200 snaps were retained by DeBoer. Players like Tim Smith, Jihaad Campbell and Malachi Moore will certainly be missed, but LT Overton, Tim Keenan III, Justin Jefferson, Bray Hubbard and Deontae Lawson were among the best defenders in the SEC last season, and provide the Tide with a solid defensive floor going into this year, especially with a year in defensive coordinator Kane Wommack’s system under their belts.
There are a few aspects of Alabama’s schedule that are conducive to the Tide playing to their ceiling this year. First, they will not have to play on the road in back-to-back weeks at any point. This is always the first thing I look for in a schedule. Second, the Tide have bye weeks before their trip to Georgia and their home game against LSU, arguably their 2 biggest games of the season. Third, 4 of Alabama’s final 6 games are at home, with the only 2 road trips being to South Carolina and in-state rival Auburn — each of which presents its own unique set of challenges.
Early-season showdowns against non-conference foes like Florida State and Wisconsin are fun on paper and were thought to be more of a challenge when they were scheduled, but Alabama is a few tiers above the present-day versions of those programs. All things considered, assuming Simpson is at the very least an average SEC quarterback, the combination of Alabama’s roster and schedule presents a floor that feels like 8-4 at worst with a ceiling as high as 11-1 or 12-0. Coach DeBoer has already been to the national championship with a program that has a fraction of the football resources Alabama has, so I trust that he is not only capable of leading a roster of this talent level to the title game, but winning it in the process.
2025 College Football National Championship longshot pick: Texas A&M Aggies (+4000)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and available at time of publishing.
First, make sure you always shop around for futures odds. From what I can find, +4000 is the best number in the market as of Sunday, August 3, and it’s as low as +3000 at some books. I know a bet at +4000 isn’t necessarily what you would consider a “longshot” by definition, but relative to the rest of the field, it at least feels like a “longer” shot with solid value based on everything Texas A&M has going for it coming into the season. The Aggies are top 10 nationally in overall returning production, and 1 of only 6 teams that have at least 70% of their 2024 production back on both sides of the ball.
Marcell Reed likely steps into a full-time starting role and will play behind an offensive line that returns all 5 of its starters to go along with an incoming top 35 overall 5-star recruit. Not many quarterbacks have that luxury in the transfer portal era. Reed is a dual-threat quarterback and will lead a rushing attack that should give opposing defenses fits, considering its entire running back room returns, namely Le’Veon Moss, Amari Daniels and Rueben Owens. As a passer, Reed left much to be desired at times, but Mike Elko brought in a handful of new pass-catching options for him, including highly sought NC State transfer KC Concepcion, Mississippi State transfer Mario Craver and 5-star freshman Jerome Myles. On paper, this unit feels vastly improved from last year.
On the other side of the ball, Texas A&M has 74% of its production back from a unit that was top 25 in success rate, havoc rate, and points allowed per opposing scoring opportunity in 2024. There is certainly plenty of room for this unit to improve, but you can see the vision. Another year in the defensive-minded Elko’s system should pay dividends for a group returning so much talent, in addition to its incoming Top 10 recruiting class and top 12 transfer portal class.
So what’s the catch then? Why are the Aggies as long as 40/1 with so much supposed talent on the roster? It’s because of their schedule. They have to play Notre Dame, LSU and Texas on the road, and the trip to LSU is immediately following their trip to Arkansas. Also, Texas A&M is one of the few power conference teams I found with 3 straight road games at any point this season, even if 2 of them should be more than winnable. It doesn’t get easier at home, either, as the Aggies welcome Auburn, Florida and South Carolina to Kyle Field, 2 of whom they lost to last year. This feels like a team with 10-2 upside that can sneak into the CFP as an at-large bid if everything goes right on the field, but the floor could be as low as 6-6. I’ll take a shot on the upside; buyer beware.
