One of the great things about the Super Bowl is the plethora of betting opportunities that present themselves across a variety of niche markets, and that even extends as far as whether there will be a safety scored. The safety is one of the rarest methods of scoring in football, but it has happened in past Super Bowl games, including a very memorable sequence to start Super Bowl 48, in which the Seattle Seahawks defense recorded a safety on the first play from scrimmage against Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. Will Seattle’s defense make a similar type of impact play 12 years later, or will the New England Patriots defense force Sam Darnold into a mistake? Let’s get into the odds and our best prediction for this market.
Read our full Super Bowl 60 New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks predictions
Will a Safety be Scored in Super Bowl 60 odds
These are the current Super Bowl odds on whether a safety will be scored, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
- A safety to be scored (+1100)
- A safety not to be scored (-2000)
Compared to the rest of the market, DraftKings is currently offering the best odds on a safety to be scored in Super Bowl 60 at +1100, and they also have odds for a safety not to be scored as well.
Will a Safety be Scored in Super Bowl 60 picks and predictions
A safety to be scored in Super Bowl 60 (+1100)
On paper, this is a bet with a low probability of succeeding, which gives some context as to why we’re seeing such long odds on a safety to be scored. However, it’s impossible for me to recommend taking odds of -2000 on almost any sort of bet in good conscience. Furthermore, because this market is extremely shaded toward the “no” price, it’s hard to ignore taking a shot on a safety to be recorded in this game at +1100 odds. Over the previous 59 Super Bowls in NFL history, we have seen 9 total safeties recorded. Statistically, this equates to about one safety every 6.56 years in the Big Game.
While we haven’t seen a safety since the snap went over Manning’s head on the first play of Super Bowl 48, the current odds of 11-1 are good enough given that the implied probability of a safety in this game is much closer to 15% than the 8.33% implied odds suggest. Additionally, both defenses should be able to have success in this matchup. After all, Seattle’s defense is the top unit in this game, as the Seahawks finished first in defensive DVOA and success rate allowed, while checking in at 2nd in EPA per play. As for New England, the Patriots defense is coming off a trio of impressive games against the Chargers, Texans and Broncos, which all featured a clear theme of pressuring the opposing quarterback and forcing miscues from the opponent.
Given the talent on both defensive lines and the likelihood that this should end up being a game in which both defensive coaching staffs emphasize field position and forcing the opponent into sacks and/or turnovers, this is a spot where a safety being scored in the Super Bowl shouldn’t have odds as high as this. Therefore, it’s worth a tiny sprinkle on the +1100 price in the market.
Don’t miss our best Patriots player prop bets and best Seahawks player prop bets for Super Bowl 60, as well as our Super Bowl 60 Same Game Parlay at +993 odds
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