Matt Selz
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Bristol baby! The return to the Last Great Coliseum under the lights is something special every year on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. This year, like last, it’s the only time we’re seeing racing on the traditional concrete high-banked surface of Bristol Motor Speedway, and oh is it special.
Bristol Motor Speedway Layout and Betting Strategy
The famed bullring of Bristol Motor Speedway is a half-mile, high-banked, high-speed short track. The constant banking on the track keeps the speeds up and also makes passing tricky here. Get ready for a bunch of bump-and-runs as well as tempers getting hot. This is not a place to play nice if a driver wants to win. Given the speeds and shortness of the laps, drivers starting near the front have a long history of winning here and doing well. This weekend the track also put down PJ1, or traction compound, in the lower groove to help make two grooves for racing, but it’s possible that it made it a one-groove-only track.
When betting on this race, keep in mind that the track will change throughout the night, as the track cools down, some cars will struggle. Also, when betting the Bass Pro Shops Night Race, keep in mind that playoff drivers will be using different strategies depending on where they are in the standings. For example, Kevin Harvick needs to win to advance, everyone else can simply point their way into the next round if they can finish better than some others around them.
Outright Winners for Bass Pro Shops Night Race
Odds listed are from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Odds can change following qualifying.
Kyle Busch (+700)
It should be known as “Buschtol” instead of Bristol. He, and his brother Kurt (who’s not racing), have won so many times here that they own the record for most wins at the track – that’s saying something. Busch has also had a ton of speed in the last couple of races. He’s fresh off of announcing his ride for next year as well, which should free him up to put all his efforts onto the track, his favorite on the schedule. His teammate Denny Hamlin (+700) is going off at the same odds, and for about the last two months (with plate races and accidents removed), he’s posted an average finish of 3.2 across all races.
Kyle Larson (+750)
In the last four trips he’s made to this track, he’s led the most laps of any driver in the field. He’s also posted the best average finish in the field, including winning this race a year ago. Larson has had consistent speed down the stretch run of the season, and a win this weekend could give him a much-needed points boost in the second round of the playoffs which is filled with tracks he’s been medoicre at.
Joey Logano (+1500)
Logano has two top-five finishes here in the last six races at Bristol. That’s not elite, but nothing to sneeze at a tricky track. He’s also been showing elite speed in the last several races this year, no matter the track type. If he gets a good starting spot for Saturday night, this return could wind up looking like a gift. One last note, he’s got the personality behind the wheel to make the tough moves here to get to the front at any point in the race.
Chase Briscoe (+4000)
Briscoe is the wild card of this race. He doesn’t have a ton of experience here in the Cup Series but, he did run very well here in the Xfinity Series. He also ran well at Dover earlier in the year, a similar track to Bristol — though it’s twice as long. There hasn’t been much to talk about with Briscoe most of the year, but he needs a strong run to advance in the playoffs, and if he can harness his Xfinity success here, it could be a good night for Briscoe.
Best Prop Bets for Bristol Night Race
Erik Jones Top-10 Finish (+175)
Really? There are 14 drivers on DraftKings with even or negative money odds for a top-10, yet somehow Jones isn’t one. We’ll take it. He’s posted very good results here over the last six races, regardless of the quality of the equipment that he’s been in. Jones has posted three top-10s and an average finish of 11.2 in that span — again regardless of equipment. Why not take plus money on a track he’s been this strong at?
Chase Briscoe Top-10 Finish (+150)
This is called hedging. The return is far lower here, as it should be given it’s just a top-10 rather than an outright win, but it’s still plus money. Again, Briscoe ran well here in Xfinity as well as last year’s night race. If we’re counting the dirt races (which shouldn’t be relied on) he was running P2 on the last lap this year in that event here.
Denny Hamlin Top Toyota (+220)
This sounds counterintuitive to betting his teammate to win, although you could bet Hamlin to do the same, however, if Busch doesn’t win, why not hedge on another great car? Hamlin has been incredibly consistent over the last two months, regardless of track type. He’s posted a 3.2 average finish in that span when taking out plate races and major incidents. We also like betting on the top Toyota simply because there are only six of them on the track at each race. It’s a lot easier to finish better than five other cars rather than beating 15 or so other drivers in the Chevy or Ford camps.
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