The NASCAR Cup Series season rolls on at Texas Motor Speedway on Sunday after the carnage that was the Jack Link’s 500 at Talladega Superspeedway last weekend. The green flag drops at approximately 3:30 PM ET on FOX, with 267 laps at 400.5 miles. Let’s set the scene before we get into our Wurth 400 Texas Motor Speedway best bets for Sunday, May 3. The race can be viewed or streamed on FS1.
23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick has 7 career NASCAR Cup Series starts under his belt at Texas, posting a win, 3 top-5 finishes and 4 top-10 runs with 149 laps led. He has had an Average Start Position (ASP) of 13.1, while posting an Average Finish Position (AFP) of 11.0 — which is a plus-margin you want to see from your driver.
Legacy Motor Club’s Erik Jones led with a 29.45-second overall lap average, while posting a 29.47-second 5-lap split. Reddick was right on his tail with a 29.48-second overall practice time, along with 20-lap splits of 29.36 to lead all drivers. RFK Racing’s Chris Buescher was red-hot in his Ford, too, posting a 29.27-second split on 15-lap averages, which was tops among all drivers in practice.
In qualifying, Spire Motorsports driver Carson Hocevar, who picked up his NCS victory at Talladega last week in a wild finish and subsequent celebration, rode the wave to a pole at TMS with a 28.222-second lap time and 191.340 mph best speed — just ahead of Spire teammate Daniel Suarez (191.320 mph). Buescher was third in qualifying at 190.981 mph, while Hocevar is on quite the roll, too, as he posted a Truck Series win Friday in overtime — his first-ever in that series.
Jones has never won at Texas in the NASCAR Cup Series, but he has 4 top-5 finishes, and 8 top-10 runs across 14 career starts, posting an 11.8 AFP with only one DNF. Hendrick Motorsports driver William Byron has a win, 3 top-5 runs and an 11.4 AFP in 11 career NCS starts.
Richard Childress Racing’s Kyle Busch has managed 4 checkered flags at Texas, each during his time at Joe Gibbs Racing, however. Still, he cannot be overlooked with 14 top-5 finishes, 1,069 laps led and a 12.5 AFP. Hendrick’s Chase Elliott also has a 12.5 AFP, with a win, 3 top-5 finishes and 7 top-10 runs in 15 career starts at the track.
Now that the table is set, let’s get into my best bets for the Wurth 400, with odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Be sure to check out our NASCAR betting analysis every week throughout the season!
NASCAR best bet: Kyle Larson Top 5 Finish (-115)
Hendrick’s Kyle Larson has already had quite the weekend in Fort Worth. He picked up his first-ever win at Texas Motor Speedway Dirt Track on Thursday in the High Limit Sprint Car series, leading all 25 laps. He held off Justin Allgaier in the Andy’s Frozen Custard 340 at Texas Motor Speedway, and will go off 11th on Sunday, looking for another strong run.
Will he get checkers? Maybe. However, we simply need a top-5 finish. The results have been mixed for Larson over the years at Texas Motor Speedway, at least on the NASCAR Cup Series. He has a win under his belt with 5 top-5 finishes and 615 laps led, but he has a 17.9 AFP — which is rather mediocre — thanks in large part to four DNFs.
NASCAR best bet: Erik Jones Top 10 Finish (+325)
Jones is worth a look for the chance to triple up. He has 14 career NASCAR Cup Series starts at TMS, posting 4 top-5 finishes and 8 top-10 runs, along with 116 laps led. A lot of that success was behind the wheel in a JGR Toyota, but he proved he is a force to be reckoned with this week in practice.
On Friday, Jones had the best overall lap average at 29.45 seconds, including a 5-lap turn at 29.47 seconds. Jones did struggle a bit in qualifying, and he’ll start from the 21st position because of it, turning in a best speed of 188.950 mph. It’s a bit of a risk, but for the chance to more than triple up, Jones is worth a look due to his past success and solid lap times in practice.
NASCAR best bet: Top Chevrolet Car – Kyle Larson (+200)
There are a handful of impressive drivers behind the wheel of a Chevy, including the Hendrick Motorsports stable of drivers. The biggest competition on this prop might be Byron, Larson’s teammate. Byron has a win, 3 top-5 finishes and 149 laps led with an 11.4 AFP in 11 career NASCAR Cup Series starts. We covered the accolades of Larson and his weekend exploits above. He is a safe play for the opportunity to double up.
NASCAR best bet: Chevrolet – Winning Manufacturer (+165)
Last week, we came up a bit short in the winning manufacturer prop play, as “The Big One” crushed most of the contenders. When we re-racked for the rest of the race, none of the top contenders remained. We should have a little more of a traditional race at Texas, and we won’t have anything close to the final laps carnage we see at the superspeedway. Chevy has the Hendrick cars, and that’s normally enough. However, we also have the red-hot Hocevar on the pole in a Chevy, and his Spire teammate Suarez is in the second spot. The biggest threat might be Toyota, but we’ll take our chances.
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