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Championship Week is in full swing and we have another fabulous slate of college hoops ahead of us once again on Friday, March 13. Friday’s card is headlined by a a couple of massive semifinal games in the Big 12 at 7:00 pm ET and 9:30 pm ET from Kansas City, while we also have plenty of action in store in the Big Ten, ACC, Big East, A-10 and the MAC, among others. I have settled on my college basketball best bets for today’s action, and I’ll be honing in on some action in the Big Ten and Big 12.
Let’s break down our college basketball best bet for today’s games, and don’t forget our NCAAB predictions for all of the biggest college hoops matchups every day throughout Championship Week as we inch ever closer to March Madness.
College basketball best bet: Wisconsin Badgers +7.5 vs Illinois Fighting Illini (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Wisconsin +7.5
Wisconsin is as hot as any team in the conference at the moment, ending the season with a flourish by dropping 97 points in a win over Purdue at Mackey Arena. The Badgers have 14 wins in their last 17 games dating back to January 6, and that stretch included victories over Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, UCLA and this same Illinois team in Champaign on February 10. With that in mind, even though it would be understandable to target Illinois to exact a bit of revenge in this spot, I can’t get there with laying nearly 3 full possessions with the Illini against an offense of Wisconsin’s calendar.
This is not a matchup that should feature much defense, and that sort of game script should play into how Wisconsin wants to attack this contest. The Badgers are a threat to knock down 15 or more threes in any game they play, and we saw them hit 16 threes and shoot over 40% from downtown in the first meeting one month ago. Illinois does a fairly good job in terms of limiting opponents inside the arc, but the Illini are ranked 255th in 3-point rate allowed on defense, so it wouldn’t shock me if the Badgers are able to attempt 40 threes in this one. That level of variance is something I generally like betting with an underdog, especially in a game where both teams are going to attempt a ton of threes and we should see plenty of possessions.
It might not end up impacting the game, but it’s also important to mention that Illinois has been dealing with a couple of key injury and/or illness questions heading into this one, including freshman phenom Keaton Wagler, who is reportedly dealing with back spasms. Junior guard Andrej Stojakovic has also been battling the flu in recent days, so a couple of key components of the Illini offense might not be at full strength on Friday. This should be a highly entertaining game from start to finish, and I’ll gladly take the points with the underdog.
Read our full Wisconsin vs Illinois prediction for today’s Big Ten matchup.
College basketball best bet: Iowa State vs Arizona Under 143.5 (-110)
Odds widely available at time of publishing. Playable to 143.
We just saw this matchup a few weeks ago, and it resulted in a convincing Arizona victory by double digits at the McKale Center. Regardless of which team ends up coming out on top this time around, my preferred wager on this game is on the under. We’ve already seen plenty of lower-scoring games in this Big 12 tournament, and I’d expect that to continue given the caliber of defense we can anticipate from both teams in this matchup.
Contrary to what you’d expect from them in years past, the Wildcats are a defense-first operation this season, as Arizona is ranked 1st in adjusted defensive efficiency and routinely holds opponents to under 70 points. The Wildcats’ approach on offense is also conducive to lower-scoring games, as Tommy Lloyd’s team shoots fewer threes than any other power conference team and they’ve been able to rely on their dominance on the glass and in the paint to grind out wins against high level Big 12 competition. On the other side, Iowa State’s excellent defense (5th in adjusted efficiency, 4th in turnovers forced) should put forth a better effort than what we just saw in Tuscon, and the Cyclones should look to slow this game down (197th in adjusted tempo) and drag Arizona into the mud. Both game scripts shade this game in a lower-scoring direction, so I’ll roll with the under on Friday.
Read our full Iowa State vs Arizona prediction
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