With the NHL on an Olympics break and the NBA not yet out of the All-Star break, it’s a pretty quiet day in the sports world, which means that it’s time for college basketball to take center stage on the calendar. The college hoops regular season has already treated us to some memorable games and wild finishes this season, and the action should only heat up from here on out, starting on Monday with a marquee game in the Big 12. Monday is headlined by an ESPN doubleheader as Syracuse battles Duke at 7:00 pm ET before a compelling matchup between the Houston Cougars and Iowa State Cyclones at Hilton Coliseum at 9:00 pm ET. I’ve settled on my college basketball best bets for tonight, and it happens to come in the biggest game on the slate.
Let’s break down our college basketball best bet for tonight’s action, and don’t forget our NCAAB predictions for all of the biggest college hoops matchups every day throughout the season as we inch ever closer to March Madness.
College basketball best bet: Iowa State Cyclones ML over Houston Cougars (-130)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140.
I’ve had a pretty good handle on the Big 12 in recent weeks, as I was all over Kansas in last Monday’s best bets column, before turning around and fading the Jayhawks against Iowa State last Saturday. It was a fantastic spot to back a Cyclones team that had revenge on its mind at home, and they rolled through Kansas en route to a routine victory. As for Houston, Kelvin Sampson’s team has rattled off 5 straight impressive double-digit wins en route to assuming control at the top of the league standings. Houston has a massive week ahead, and it starts with a brutal road test at Hilton Coliseum, before a showdown with Arizona on Saturday. With that in mind, I’ll be going back to the well with Iowa State in what should be an excellent contest on Monday.
TJ Otzelberger’s team has been elite in Ames all season long, and that could end up being the difference in this game. These are a couple of very evenly matched teams on paper, with Houston and Iowa State sitting at 4th and 7th in KenPom, respectively. Ultimately, there are a couple of advantages for the hosts that should play a significant role in the Cyclones’ ability to come away with the victory in this one. Most importantly, the Cougars are a whopping 289th in the nation in three-point rate allowed (Bart Torvik), and Iowa State is one of the top 5 teams in the country in three-point percentage, thanks to the sharpshooting prowess of veteran forward Milan Momcilovic and emerging freshman Jamarion Batemon off the bench.
The Cyclones shoot over 40 percent from deep at home, which should aid them against an excellent Houston defense that thrives on denying points in the paint (13th in two-point percentage allowed). Furthermore, Iowa State is an excellent rebounding team on both ends, which is always key against a Houston squad that lives to create extra possessions on the offensive glass, while also denying chances for opponents to do the same. The Cyclones also do a great job of not fouling (19th in free-throw rate allowed per Bart Torvik), and Houston struggles at getting to the free-throw line anyway, so free points shouldn’t be much of an issue. All things considered, this is a pretty decent matchup for the hosts.
Given the elevated home court advantage for the Cyclones in this one, and the couple of pivotal advantages that the hosts have in this matchup, it’s reasonable to project that Iowa State should play to its high standard at home against a Houston team that is primed for a road loss following 6 straight fairly routine victories. I’ll gladly back the Cyclones to hold serve in front of their home fans.
Read our full Houston vs Iowa State prediction for tonight’s matchup on ESPN
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